FNUS72 KMFL 121631
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR FFS INCIDENT  0167...U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1159 EDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING OVER THE AREA TODAY, AS A FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR AND MOVE OVER THE
BURN AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WILL BE HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, THROUGH BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM
TONIGHT, BEFORE THE PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. TOMORROW WILL SEE THE COLD
FRONT GET CLOSER, SPARKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING QUIET
WEATHER, AS WELL AS RH VALUES DOWN IN THE MID 30S FOR TUESDAY.

THERE IS SOME FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY FAVORING
A LOW STRATUS DECK, RATHER THAN FOG, ANY SMOKE THAT LAYS DOWN, MAY ACT
AS A NUCLEI FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. SO, IN THE BURN AREA, THERE WILL BE A
 GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG, AND POSSIBLY EVEN DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP,
DEPENDING ON THE SMOKE THE REMAINS IN THE AREA.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 60.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM
SKY (%).........30     54     54     54     54     44
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............87     89     89     87     83     75
RH..............68     55     50     57     72     90
20 FT WIND......SW 4   SW 5   SW 5   W 6    W 6    W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     15     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)....4500   4500   4500   4500   4500   700
MIXNG WIND......SW 8   SW 12  SW 12  W 15   W 15   W 9
DISPERSION IDX..46     60     60     59     59     6
LVORI...........1      1      1      1      3      3
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     40     40     40     40     10
LAL.............2      3      3      3      3      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 97 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4.
LVORI...............7.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 44 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 8 TO 9 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....27 INCREASING TO 56 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...IPPOLITI
REQUESTED BY...ROBERTO TRINCADO
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130512.FFSIN.01/MFL