FNUS73 KAPX 131417 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR TUTTLE MARSH...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1035 EDT ON MAY 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE PROPOSED BURN SITE TODAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH DEEP MIXING RESULTING IN LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE RANGE IN HUMIDITY FROM RIGHT ON/NEAR THE COASTLINE WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL TRY AND GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TO A HANDFUL OF MILES INLAND. THE RANGE WILL BE FROM AROUND 40 PERCENT ON THE SHORE...TO NEAR 25 PERCENT JUST A FEW MILES INLAND. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES IS DIFFICULT TO DEFINE. WINDS DO LIGHTEN UP GOING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERY GOOD INTO THE EVENING...WITH PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH HUMIDITIES LOWERING TO SOME DEGREE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. WINDS ALSO BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 52. RH..................43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13 TO 16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7100-7700 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1400). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........1 0 10 2 4 11 15 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............45 48 48 50 51 52 52 RH..............43 35 30 28 27 26 27 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW W W W SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......1400140013001100110010001000 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST LATE IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36. RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 2 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........16 19 20 30 50 60 59 57 56 65 85 94 WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY WEATHER TYPE.... FST FST FST FST FST FST TEMP............52 51 48 45 42 38 37 36 36 37 38 39 RH..............27 28 33 40 48 62 67 69 72 70 70 70 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW W W W NW W SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 SMOKE DISP......10001000800 400 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 53. RH..................MIN 69 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(500). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........96 100 95 89 84 82 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............40 42 45 48 50 53 RH..............70 85 76 77 74 69 20 FT WIND......S 2 S 3 S 5 S 6 S 9 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 15 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2 SMOKE DISP......0 100 200 300 400 500 $$ FORECASTER...JAMES KEYSOR REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130513.TUTTL.02/APX