FNUS75 KMSO 131922
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR HAYES CREEK UNIT B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
122 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1240 MDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BURN AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THIS SPOT LOCATION.  STRONG WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING.  A DRIER AND COOLER WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.  THE AIR MASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AND SLOWLY MOISTEN LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES.  DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BECOME MODERATE WEST WINDS LATE AS SOME WINDS MIX DOWN TO VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD OCCUR BY
THURSDAY TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH INCREASING TO 13-16 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH
                    STORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  SHOWERS ENDING
                    BY MIDNIGHT BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 18-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50
                    MPH DECREASING TO 5-7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...
OUTLOOK...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER VERY
          LATE IN THE DAY.  MAX TEMPERATURE 67-71 WITH MIN RH 20-25
          PERCENT.  UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY WIND 3-8 MPH...BECOMING
          SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 MPH LATE AFTERNOON.

.THURSAY...
OUTLOOK...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
          OF A THUNDERSTORM.  MAX TEMPERATURE 65-69 WITH MIN RH
          30-40 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

$$
FORECASTER...BAUCK
REQUESTED BY...JACQUIE PARKS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130513.HAYES.01/MSO