FNUS71 KCTP 140947 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 251...PA GAME COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 547 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR WEAKER WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOMORROW. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 13 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............40 47 54 61 65 67 71 75 WEATHER COV......... SCH WEATHER TYPE........ RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................45 50 52 54 56 57 57 57 RH..................47 40 37 34 32 33 35 37 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W W W SW 20 FT WIND SPD......3 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......4.5 5.5 6.2 6.7 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....8 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......6300-7600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 13 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............79 85 86 88 90 85 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................57 55 53 51 49 48 RH..................40 47 54 61 71 77 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 S 3 S 3 S 3 SE 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)........7600 6300 2100 BLW100 300 400 TRANSPORT WIND......W 13 W 13 S 6 SE 3 SE 7 S 12 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 4 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-4200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 21 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 23 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............78 72 72 72 73 73 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................49 51 58 65 72 75 RH..................77 73 65 58 53 49 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 6 S 8 SW 9 SW 10 SW 12 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........600 800 800 2100 4100 3800 TRANSPORT WIND......S 14 S 13 S 13 S 15 SW 20 W 23 LAL.................1 1 1 3 4 4 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...CERU REQUESTED BY...BRENT MCNEAL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130514.SGL25.01/CTP