FNUS71 KCTP 141033 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR STITZER GAP RX FIRE...DCNR, DISTRICT 07 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 633 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR WEAKER WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THOUGH THEY WILL BE LOW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY WITH AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58. MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7000-8100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............42 57 62 69 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................49 53 56 58 RH..................40 34 32 33 20 FT WIND..........W 5 W 7 W 7 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........5900 6700 7700 7900 TRANSPORT WIND......W 10 W 10 W 10 W 10 LAL.................1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-1400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............72 77 81 85 88 85 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................57 55 52 49 46 45 RH..................35 41 51 62 76 81 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 3 S 3 S 3 SE 3 SE 3 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)........6500 2600 600 BLW100 200 200 TRANSPORT WIND......W 8 S 5 S 3 S 2 SE 3 SE 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 4 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-2800 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............81 78 78 78 76 76 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ S CHC LIKELY LIKELY TEMP................46 49 56 62 67 71 RH..................79 73 65 60 57 53 20 FT WIND..........S 5 S 6 S 8 S 9 S 10 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........500 900 1300 1500 1700 2600 TRANSPORT WIND......SE 8 S 14 S 18 S 18 S 15 SW 22 LAL.................1 1 1 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........3 2 2 2 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...CERU REQUESTED BY...DANIEL L SMITH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130514.STITZ.01/CTP