FNUS73 KDMX 142203 FWSDMX SPOT FORECAST FOR KIOWA MARSH...IOWA DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 503 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1900 CDT ON MAY 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED... PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...AROUND 20 PERCENT...THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY RISING AFTER DARK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 101. RH..................MIN 16 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 20 TO 26 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 12500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 10100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 28 TO 37 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (1500-2000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO POOR TO EXCELLENT (2800-72300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (363700-372800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (227000-344900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 20 TO 26 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........7 7 7 7 10 15 18 19 22 24 26 30 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW TSTM COV........ SCH SCH TEMP............63 70 75 84 88 93 97 98 98 97 97 95 RH..............70 57 48 36 29 24 18 16 16 16 16 17 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S SW SW SW SW SW W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..10 13 14 17 20 24 26 25 24 23 21 20 20 FT WIND GUST. 15 15 20 30 35 35 30 30 25 25 EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW S SW SW SW SW SW W W W EYE LVL WND SPD.7 9 10 12 14 17 18 18 17 16 15 14 EYE LVL WND GST. 15 15 20 30 35 35 30 30 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.8 3.3 13 12 11 11 10 9.4 MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W MIXNG WIND SPD..7 7 9 13 18 25 33 36 37 37 33 28 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........95 AT IGNITION...MIN 57. RH..................17 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 64 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (32800-166700 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR TO POOR (1500-2300 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 15 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........34 40 42 29 23 25 WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV........ S CHC TEMP............95 81 72 66 62 58 RH..............17 26 37 47 52 59 20 FT WIND......W 15 NW 12 NW 10 N 10 N 10 NW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 15 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..W 11 NW 9 NW 7 N 7 N 7 NW 6 EYE LVL WND GST.20 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....8800 3100 300 300 300 300 MIXNG WIND......W 22 NW 13 NW 8 NW 10 N 10 N 8 HAINES INDEX....6 5 5 5 5 5 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75. RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1500-32600 KNOT-FT). WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........30 37 45 42 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV........ TEMP............60 67 72 74 RH..............58 43 35 34 20 FT WIND......S 9G10 E 9G10 NE 9G10 NE 8G10 EYE LEVEL WIND..S 6G10 E 6G10 NE 6G10 NE 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2600 3300 3900 MIXNG WIND......N 7 N 14 NE 10 NE 8 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...LEE REQUESTED BY...LUKE FEILMEIER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130514.KIOWA.02/DMX