FNUS73 KDMX 141245 FWSDMX SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER MORSE LAKE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 745 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED... PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES...AND DECREASING RH VALUES...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES EXPECTED AFTER 2 PM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 1900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 29 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1200-25100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (43200-158600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........9 9 11 16 18 19 22 25 26 32 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TSTM COV........ TEMP............69 75 80 84 88 90 92 92 92 91 RH..............51 41 34 30 26 24 22 21 22 23 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 12 15 18 22 24 25 24 21 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 20 25 30 35 35 30 30 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW EYE LVL WND SPD.6 7 9 11 13 16 17 18 17 15 EYE LVL WND GST.10 15 15 20 25 30 35 35 30 30 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.3 4.3 5.3 3.6 1.9 MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW MIXNG WIND SPD..6 8 13 17 23 29 33 35 31 25 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57. MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 14 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 7 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (1500-4300 KNOT-FT). WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........38 42 44 43 29 28 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV........S CHC CHANCE S CHC TEMP............88 77 70 67 62 58 RH..............26 40 51 56 65 69 20 FT WIND......SW 17 W 12 NW 9 NW 10 NW 12 NW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.25 15 10 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 12 W 9 NW 6 NW 7 NW 9 NW 7 EYE LVL WND GST.25 15 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 300 300 300 300 MIXNG WIND......SW 20 SW 9 W 7 N 12 N 12 NW 9 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...BHATTARAI REQUESTED BY...DAN PAULSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130514.LOWER.01/DMX