FNUS75 KCYS 151227
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTERBROOK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
627 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE BURN SITE TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE EAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT
AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CREATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BURN SITE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM TODAY. THEN WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER ALONG WITH DAYTIME GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE BURN SITE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EASTERLY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY MIDDAY (60200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR BY MIDNIGHT (2400 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 14
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY MIDDAY (145300 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...WEILAND
REQUESTED BY...ERIC CHAPMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130515.ESTER.02/CYS