FNUS75 KCYS 151215
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK RX...BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
615 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1915 MDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE BURN
SITE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL CREATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN SITE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM TODAY. THEN WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER ALONG WITH DAYTIME GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE BURN SITE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON (119100
                    KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER 9 PM.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH...THEN BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH
                    AFTER LATE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR BY MIDNIGHT (3500 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12
                    TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 28 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY LATE MORNING (204900
                    KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...WEILAND
REQUESTED BY...CHRISTINE MITCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130515.MORGA.01/CYS