FNUS73 KDLH 151748 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR GERMANN FIRE...WDNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1248 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1243 CDT ON MAY 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... EXPECT VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY GUSTY NW TO W WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW TO W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH COULD GUST UP TO ABOUT 18 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 75 DEGREES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN WHICH THE CONDITIONS APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. THERE WILL BE INCREASING SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NW MINNESOTA MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND BECAUSE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS, SO ANTICIPATE ONLY SPRINKLES/VIRGA. THERE COULD BE BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SPRINKLES/VIRGA. THERE IS A REMOTE THREAT OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AMID THE SHOWERS. THE CHANCE IS SO REMOTE THAT I DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPDATE TO THIS FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER TO AROUND 75 PERCENT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77. MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (133300) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (177350) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM TEMP............70 71 73 72 RH..............31 26 23 25 20 FT WIND DIR..NW W W NW 20 FT WIND SPD..11 12 11 8 20 FT WIND GUST.16 18 16 16 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47. MAX HUMIDITY........70-73 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 3 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (40000) DECREASING TO POOR (1350) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............69 61 54 50 47 45 RH..............28 39 54 66 68 70 20 FT WIND DIR..NW W W W NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 5 4 3 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.13 9 5 $$ FORECASTER...GEOFF REQUESTED BY...GERMANN ICP TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130515.GERMA.02/DLH