FNUS74 KOUN 151841
FWSOUN

SPOT FORECAST FOR HEADQUARTERS PILES...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
141 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1320 CDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...NEAR THE REFUGE. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THOSE WORKING THE BURN SITE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...10 TO 20 MPH...
GUSTING NEAR 25 TO 30 AT TIMES. IF THE SITE IS IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM... SMALL HAIL...TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...AND GUSTY WINDS
OF NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81 AT IGNITION...MAX 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 16 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 17 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2000-3700 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO
                    1600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 17
                    TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1900-49000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT /73700 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
                    MAX...EXCELLENT /73700 KNOT-FT/ IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............79  81  82  83  83  82
RH..............56  53  51  49  49  51
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..17  18  20  20  20  18
20 FT WIND GUST.30  30  30  30  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 3.4 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.6
MIX HGT (KM)....1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.23  26  30  32  31  28
TRANS SPD (M/S).10  12  13  14  14  13
VRATE KTFT/1000.74  72  65  56  45  35

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (8800-25800 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...KURTZ
REQUESTED BY...JEREMIAH PHILLIPS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130515.HEADQ.01/OUN