FNUS75 KBOU 161749 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER BEAVER MEADOWS...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 1143 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1136 MDT ON MAY 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM WILL BE HIGH BASED AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68. MIN HUMIDITY........27-30%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......11000-12000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38. MAX HUMIDITY........59-63%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-9 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR UPPER BEAVER MEADOWS. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/16-11 49 5 2 61 31 W 9 15 3 1 W 20 10818 W 16145957 V 05/16-12 56 20 4 63 29 W 9 15 3 3 W 22 12420 W 14152709 E 05/16-13 56 20 4 65 27 W 9 15 3 3 W 24 12591 W 15166530 E 05/16-14 56 20 4 65 27 W 10 16 3 3 W 25 12762 W 16180351 E 05/16-15 56 20 4 65 27 W 10 16 3 3 W 28 12934 W 17194172 E 05/16-16 56 20 4 64 27 WSW 10 17 3 3 W 30 11637 W 17171444 E 05/16-17 56 20 4 62 29 WSW 10 17 3 3 W 30 10341 W 16148715 V 05/16-18 46 10 2 59 32 WSW 10 16 3 2 W 31 9045 W 16125987 V 05/16-19 46 10 2 55 36 WSW 9 15 3 2 W 29 6865 W 15 92955 G 05/16-20 46 10 2 51 42 WSW 8 13 3 2 W 26 4685 W 14 59923 F 05/16-21 46 6 1 48 46 WSW 7 7 3 1 W 25 2505 W 13 26891 P 05/16-22 46 6 1 45 50 WSW 7 7 3 1 WSW 26 1848 WSW 13 19832 P 05/16-23 46 6 1 43 52 WSW 7 7 3 1 WSW 28 1192 WSW 13 12773 P 05/17-00 22 3 1 42 53 WSW 7 7 3 1 WSW 29 535 SW 13 5715 P 05/17-01 22 3 1 42 52 WSW 8 8 3 1 WSW 28 522 SW 13 5973 P 05/17-02 22 3 1 42 51 WSW 8 14 3 1 WSW 26 508 SW 14 6231 P 05/17-03 22 3 1 41 53 WSW 9 15 3 1 WSW 25 494 SW 15 6489 P 05/17-04 22 3 1 39 57 WSW 9 15 3 1 WSW 26 484 WSW 15 6377 P 05/17-05 22 3 1 38 59 WSW 9 15 3 1 SW 28 473 WSW 15 6265 P 05/17-06 17 2 0 39 57 WSW 9 15 3 1 SW 28 462 WSW 15 6153 P 05/17-07 17 2 0 44 47 WSW 9 15 3 1 SW 26 2111 WSW 17 36160 P 05/17-08 17 2 0 50 37 WSW 9 15 4 1 SW 25 3761 WSW 18 66167 G 05/17-09 17 2 0 56 30 WSW 9 15 4 1 SW 23 5410 WSW 21 96175 G 05/17-10 17 2 0 60 26 WSW 9 9 4 1 SW 23 7959 WSW 20135002 V 05/17-11 17 2 0 63 23 SW 9 9 3 1 SW 24 10509 SW 20173830 E 05/17-12 31 2 0 65 21 SW 9 14 3 1 SW 25 13058 SW 18212657 E 05/17-13 31 2 0 67 19 SW 9 15 3 1 SW 23 14124 SW 17201358 E 05/17-14 31 2 0 69 18 SW 10 15 4 1 SW 21 15190 SW 15190060 E 05/17-15 43 2 0 69 17 SW 10 16 4 1 WSW 18 16255 SSW 13178762 E 05/17-16 43 2 0 68 18 SW 10 15 4 1 WSW 15 14385 SSW 12147297 V 05/17-17 43 2 0 65 20 SW 9 9 4 1 SW 13 12516 SSW 10115833 V 05/17-18 48 2 0 61 23 SW 8 8 4 1 SW 10 10646 SSW 9 84369 G 05/17-19 48 2 0 57 27 WSW 8 8 4 1 SW 12 9861 SSW 9 78763 G 05/17-20 48 2 0 53 31 W 7 7 4 1 SW 12 9076 SSW 9 73157 G 05/17-21 48 2 0 50 34 W 7 7 4 1 SSW 13 8292 S 9 67551 G 05/17-22 48 2 0 47 39 W 7 7 4 1 SSW 15 5708 SSW 7 45595 F 05/17-23 48 2 0 46 40 W 7 7 4 1 SSW 17 3124 SW 6 23638 P 05/18-00 42 5 1 45 42 W 7 7 4 1 SSW 20 540 WSW 3 1682 P 05/18-01 42 5 1 45 41 W 7 7 4 1 SSW 25 524 WSW 5 2118 P 05/18-02 42 5 1 44 43 W 8 8 3 1 S 31 508 W 6 2554 P 05/18-03 42 5 1 43 45 W 8 8 3 1 S 37 493 W 7 2990 P 05/18-04 42 5 1 41 49 W 8 8 3 1 S 39 506 W 9 4134 P 05/18-05 42 5 1 40 52 W 8 8 3 1 S 40 520 W 12 5279 P 05/18-06 53 18 4 41 50 WSW 7 7 3 1 S 43 533 W 14 6423 P 05/18-07 53 18 4 44 46 WSW 6 6 3 1 S 31 3004 SSW 6 25069 P 05/18-08 53 18 4 49 38 SW 3 3 4 1 S 28 5484 S 8 48714 F 05/18-09 53 18 4 54 32 SSW 2 2 4 1 S 25 7965 S 10 72358 G 05/18-10 53 18 4 58 28 SSW 2 2 4 1 S 23 9733 S 12 97488 G 05/18-11 53 18 4 60 27 S 3 3 3 1 S 22 11501 S 12122617 V 05/18-12 75 23 5 61 26 S 5 5 3 3 S 21 13269 S 13147746 V 05/18-13 75 23 5 62 26 SSW 6 6 3 3 S 22 12726 S 13139424 V 05/18-14 75 23 5 62 27 SW 7 7 3 3 S 24 12183 S 13131103 V 05/18-15 75 23 5 61 30 SW 8 8 3 3 S 26 11640 S 13122782 V 05/18-16 75 23 5 60 32 WSW 8 8 3 3 S 25 10426 S 10 95017 G 05/18-17 75 23 5 57 36 W 9 9 3 3 S 24 9212 SSW 8 67252 G 05/18-18 80 24 5 54 41 W 9 14 3 3 S 23 7997 SW 6 39487 P 05/18-19 80 24 5 52 45 W 9 15 3 05/18-20 80 24 5 49 50 W 10 15 3 05/18-21 80 24 5 46 56 W 10 16 3 05/18-22 80 24 5 45 57 W 10 15 3 05/18-23 80 24 5 43 61 W 9 15 3 05/19-00 75 23 5 42 62 W 9 14 1 05/19-01 75 23 5 41 64 W 9 9 1 05/19-02 75 23 5 41 64 W 9 9 1 05/19-03 75 23 5 40 67 W 9 9 1 05/19-04 75 23 5 38 72 W 9 9 1 05/19-05 75 23 5 37 75 W 9 9 1 05/19-06 70 36 14 37 76 W 9 14 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...COOPER REQUESTED BY...DOWELL TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20130516.UPPER.01/BOU