FNUS73 KMQT 161015 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH SCHAAWE RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 615 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT OF THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE A NORTHERLY WIND AT THE FIRE SITE TODAY WITH MINIMAL CHANCE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LAKE BREEZE AS WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AS WARM AS THE UPPER 60S. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 20 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START THE DAY CLEAR...BUT BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL LATE AT NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS NORTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH BY LATE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 29 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (475) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (475) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (818) BY LATE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4400 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........24 33 33 31 28 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............54 61 64 65 63 RH..............54 38 31 30 33 GENERAL WIND....N 8 N 10 N 10 N 10 N 9 GENERAL GUST....16 20 20 20 18 VINDX KT-FT/100.475 799 800 695 528 TRANSPORT WIND..N 24 N 24 N 22 N 18 N 17 MIX HGT (FT)....2300 3800 4200 4300 3500 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 31. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5...OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 4 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........21 33 45 55 55 52 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 45 36 34 33 32 RH..............42 65 89 92 96 100 GENERAL WIND....N 7 N 7 N 5 N 4 N 4 N 4 GENERAL GUST....14 VINDX KT-FT/100.296 94 13 18 13 4 TRANSPORT WIND..N 17 N 16 N 13 NE 8 NE 6 E 6 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 700 100 300 300 100 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 64. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 38 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 10 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (185). MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........50 51 53 55 56 57 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............40 52 61 62 64 63 RH..............82 54 41 39 38 41 GENERAL WIND....NE 4 NE 4 SE 5 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 GENERAL GUST.... 8 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.15 117 185 150 111 93 TRANSPORT WIND..E 7 E 6 SE 6 SE 5 SE 3 SE 3 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2300 3700 3700 3700 3100 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...JLA REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL PETERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130516.SOUTH.01/MQT