FNUS71 KRNK 172303 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR SWIFT WATER EXERCISE...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 703 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1828 EDT ON MAY 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 8-11 PM. A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN HIGH...MAKING IT FEEL HUMID. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80 PERCENT CLOUD COVER). A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 8-11 PM...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62. MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CWR (0.01 IN).......50 PERCENT THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 1 TO 6 MPH. TIME (EDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).............92 84 83 83 82 78 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................80 75 71 69 67 65 RH..................47 62 73 77 80 92 20 FT WIND..........E 2 E 1 E 0 E 1 E 1 E 1 20 FT WIND GUST..... MIX HGT (FT)........2400 400 300 300 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND......E 2 E 2 E 3 NE 3 NE 2 NE 2 LVORI...............2 3 3 4 5 5 ADI.................1 1 2 1 1 1 CWR.................40 50 50 30 20 20 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT CLOUD COVER). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............77 76 80 85 88 86 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ ISOLTD ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................63 66 70 74 76 78 RH..................89 81 73 66 59 55 20 FT WIND..........E 1 E 1 E 2 SE 3 SE 4 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........300 300 1300 2400 3100 3700 TRANSPORT WIND......N 3 NE 5 NE 10 E 12 E 8 E 12 LVORI...............7 5 3 3 2 1 ADI.................1 4 17 24 21 32 CWR.................20 20 20 30 50 60 $$ FORECASTER...MANUEL REQUESTED BY...PHIL TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20130517.SWIFT.01/RNK