FNUS75 KBOU 190226 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG ELK FIRE...BCSO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 827 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2008 MDT ON MAY 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE BURN AREA WILL COOL OFF SOMEWHAT AND THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35-40. MAX HUMIDITY........70-80%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10-16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 3300-3800 FT AGL AFTER 2400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MIN HUMIDITY........30-40%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 5600 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 8300 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 11700-12700 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 14000-15000 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 12300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG ELK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/18-20 76 36 14 47 60 W 9 9 3 4 SW 20 8052 W 18119121 V 05/18-21 69 36 14 47 60 W 9 14 3 4 SW 22 5884 W 20 99144 G 05/18-22 69 36 14 46 62 W 10 15 3 4 SSW 20 5187 W 21 92299 G 05/18-23 69 36 14 45 63 W 12 18 3 4 SSW 17 4491 W 22 85455 G 05/19-00 61 18 4 44 63 WNW 14 21 3 1 SSW 15 3794 W 24 78610 G 05/19-01 61 18 4 44 61 WNW 16 24 3 1 SSW 13 3809 W 23 75433 G 05/19-02 61 18 4 43 61 W 17 26 3 1 SW 12 3824 W 22 72256 G 05/19-03 61 18 4 42 62 W 18 28 3 1 SW 9 3839 W 21 69079 G 05/19-04 61 18 4 41 65 W 16 25 3 1 WSW 9 3551 W 21 64343 G 05/19-05 61 18 4 40 67 W 14 21 3 1 WSW 10 3264 WNW 21 59607 F 05/19-06 57 15 3 40 67 W 12 17 3 1 W 10 2976 WNW 21 54871 F 05/19-07 57 15 3 43 59 W 12 17 3 1 W 8 5645 WNW 18 71827 G 05/19-08 57 15 3 46 52 W 12 18 3 1 W 7 8313 WNW 15 88783 G 05/19-09 55 25 5 49 46 W 13 20 3 1 W 6 10982 WNW 12105739 V 05/19-10 55 25 5 51 42 W 13 20 3 1 W 6 12158 WNW 13132328 V 05/19-11 55 25 5 53 39 WNW 13 20 3 1 W 6 13334 WNW 14158917 E 05/19-12 86 42 19 54 37 WNW 13 20 3 2 W 6 14510 WNW 15185506 E 05/19-13 86 42 19 55 34 WNW 12 18 3 2 W 8 14737 WNW 15198513 E 05/19-14 86 42 19 55 33 WNW 12 16 3 2 W 10 14965 WNW 16211520 E 05/19-15 86 40 18 55 32 WNW 10 16 3 4 WNW 13 15193 WNW 17224526 E 05/19-16 86 40 18 54 35 WNW 10 16 3 4 WNW 17 13739 WNW 18218874 E 05/19-17 86 40 18 52 39 WNW 10 16 3 4 NW 22 12284 WNW 21213221 E 05/19-18 74 31 10 50 44 W 10 16 3 2 NW 25 10830 WNW 22207568 E 05/19-19 74 31 10 49 47 WNW 9 14 3 2 NW 24 9752 WNW 23190347 E 05/19-20 74 31 10 47 51 WNW 8 8 3 2 NW 23 8673 WNW 23173127 E 05/19-21 74 31 10 45 55 WNW 6 6 3 2 NW 22 7595 WNW 24155907 E 05/19-22 74 31 10 44 57 WNW 6 6 3 2 NW 18 6520 WNW 23131766 V 05/19-23 74 31 10 42 60 W 6 6 3 2 WNW 16 5445 WNW 23107625 V 05/20-00 73 30 9 42 62 W 6 6 3 1 WNW 13 4371 WNW 22 83484 G 05/20-01 73 30 9 41 62 W 6 6 3 1 WNW 14 3971 WNW 23 78392 G 05/20-02 73 30 9 40 62 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 14 3572 WNW 24 73300 G 05/20-03 73 30 9 39 64 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 15 3172 WNW 25 68207 G 05/20-04 73 30 9 38 70 W 8 8 3 1 WNW 14 2921 WNW 25 64359 G 05/20-05 73 30 9 37 75 W 9 9 3 1 WNW 13 2671 WNW 26 60511 G 05/20-06 89 41 18 37 75 W 9 9 3 1 WNW 12 2420 WNW 26 56662 F 05/20-07 89 41 18 40 67 WNW 9 9 3 1 NW 13 4049 WNW 28100513 V 05/20-08 89 41 18 44 57 NW 8 8 2 1 NNW 14 5677 NW 29144364 V 05/20-09 89 41 18 47 51 NW 8 8 2 1 NNW 16 7306 NW 30188215 E 05/20-10 89 41 18 50 48 NW 8 8 2 1 NNW 22 7962 NW 30211047 E 05/20-11 89 41 18 51 46 NNW 8 8 2 1 N 29 8619 NNW 31233878 E 05/20-12 97 55 30 51 48 NNW 8 8 2 2 N 35 9276 NNW 32256710 E 05/20-13 97 55 30 51 48 NNW 8 8 2 2 N 36 9072 NNW 31247393 E 05/20-14 97 55 30 51 46 NNW 9 9 2 2 NNW 36 8868 NNW 31238076 E 05/20-15 97 55 30 50 48 NNW 9 9 2 2 NNW 36 8664 NNW 30228759 E 05/20-16 97 55 30 49 52 NNW 10 10 2 2 NNW 37 8120 NNW 31220303 E 05/20-17 97 55 30 48 54 NNW 12 12 2 2 NNW 39 7576 NNW 32211847 E 05/20-18 94 41 18 46 60 NNW 12 12 2 1 NNW 41 7032 NW 33203390 E 05/20-19 94 41 18 45 62 NNW 12 12 2 1 NNW 41 6856 NW 32190336 E 05/20-20 94 41 18 45 62 NW 10 10 2 1 NNW 43 6679 NW 30177281 E 05/20-21 94 41 18 44 65 NW 9 9 2 1 NNW 43 6503 NW 29164227 E 05/20-22 94 41 18 43 67 NW 8 8 2 1 NNW 43 6256 NW 30159586 E 05/20-23 94 41 18 43 70 NW 8 8 2 1 NNW 44 6009 NW 30154946 E 05/21-00 69 23 5 42 73 NW 8 8 2 1 NNW 44 5762 NW 30150305 E 05/21-01 69 23 5 41 73 WNW 8 8 2 1 NNW 45 5098 NW 33142191 V 05/21-02 69 23 5 39 79 WNW 9 9 2 1 NNW 46 4434 NW 36134077 V 05/21-03 69 23 5 38 79 WNW 10 10 2 1 NNW 46 3770 NW 38125964 V 05/21-04 69 23 5 37 82 WNW 10 10 2 1 NNW 45 3522 NW 40122118 V 05/21-05 69 23 5 37 82 WNW 12 12 2 1 NNW 43 3274 NW 41118273 V 05/21-06 65 18 4 38 79 WNW 12 12 2 1 N 41 3027 NW 44114427 V 05/21-07 65 18 4 41 67 WNW 12 12 2 1 N 40 4060 NW 44155261 E 05/21-08 65 18 4 45 58 WNW 12 12 2 1 N 39 5094 NW 44196095 E 05/21-09 65 18 4 49 48 WNW 12 12 2 1 N 38 6127 NW 45236929 E 05/21-10 65 18 4 51 44 WNW 12 12 2 1 N 37 7062 NW 41249809 E 05/21-11 65 18 4 53 43 NW 12 12 2 1 N 36 7997 NW 38262689 E 05/21-12 60 18 4 55 40 NW 12 12 2 1 N 35 8933 NW 36275569 E 05/21-13 60 18 4 56 38 NW 10 10 2 1 NNW 32 9131 NW 33261297 E 05/21-14 60 18 4 57 37 NW 10 10 2 1 NNW 30 9329 NW 31247025 E 05/21-15 60 18 4 57 37 NW 9 9 2 1 NW 29 9528 NW 28232753 E 05/21-16 60 18 4 56 38 NW 8 8 2 1 NW 30 9213 NW 28217768 E 05/21-17 60 18 4 55 40 NW 8 8 2 1 NW 32 8898 NW 26202783 E 05/21-18 50 10 2 53 43 NW 7 7 2 1 NW 33 8583 NW 25187798 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...RJK REQUESTED BY...JAY WILLETTE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130518.BIGEL.01/BOU