FNUS75 KCYS 181442
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK RX...BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
842 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE THE TRIGGER FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY AFTER 1400L. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE BURN AREA SEEING TEMPERATURES OF ONLY 55
TO 60 DEGRESS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THERE WILL INCREASING CHANCES OF A
MORE STEADY TYPE RAIN AND AGAIN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

ONE IMPORTANT ISSUE INITIALLY IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
PRIMED TO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON GENERALLY AFTER 1400L.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH BECOMING 10 TO 18 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER 1400L.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (48600-149300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (63200-128100 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (90400-163600 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...GRIFFITH
REQUESTED BY...RAWLINS DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130518.MORGA.01/CYS