FNUS73 KDTX 201249 FWSDTX SPOT FORECAST FOR TOBICO MARSH...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 849 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EDT ON MAY 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SEE A BRIEF SHIFT TO EASTERLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM AS THE LAKE BREEZE SHIFTS OFF SAGINAW BAY. A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 AM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...THEN DRY THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH 10 AM...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77. MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL BY AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (MAX...600). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........69 75 81 80 78 77 76 75 WEATHER COV..... CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............72 73 74 75 75 75 75 74 RH..............73 72 70 68 66 66 69 72 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S SW 20 FT WIND SPD..8 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S SW EYE LVL WND SPD.8 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 EYE LVL WND GST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 VRATE (KT-FT)...200 300 500 600 600 600 500 300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....POOR (MIN...0). TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........73 71 69 66 68 70 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 67 64 62 61 60 RH..............76 80 85 95 91 90 20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S SW S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 VRATE (KT-FT)...200 100 0 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...RICHTER REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130520.TOBIC.01/DTX