FNUS71 KCTP 211054 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR WELCH RIDGE II...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY/DCNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 654 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH LATE WEEK. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE OCCASIONALLY WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BECOMING LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 82. RH..................80 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5000-5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 17 TO 18 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............59 60 61 62 62 62 63 64 WEATHER COV.........PTY SCH SCH SCH SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE........FOG RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ SCH SCH SCH SCT SCT SCT SCT TEMP................70 72 74 76 78 79 79 79 RH..................80 76 70 64 59 58 57 57 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......3.8 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....13 14 15 15 15 16 17 18 LAL.................1 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63. RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LAL.................16-25 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-6100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 600-2500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO 10 TO 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............65 65 66 67 69 70 72 74 75 75 75 74 WEATHER COV.........SCT SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............SCT SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC TEMP................77 76 75 73 72 70 69 68 66 65 64 63 RH..................59 61 64 65 67 70 73 75 78 82 85 89 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......6.0 6.1 5.7 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW W W W W SW W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....20 20 18 16 14 12 10 10 10 12 12 13 LAL.................4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80. RH..................MIN 51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LAL.................16-25 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3700-5600 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............74 73 73 73 73 72 72 72 71 72 72 73 WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY TEMP................64 65 66 69 71 74 75 77 78 79 79 80 RH..................87 85 84 76 69 63 60 57 54 53 52 51 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......5 6 6 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 13 13 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.3 1.8 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 5.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....14 16 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 21 22 23 LAL.................4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER REQUESTED BY...JOHN WAMBAUGH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130521.WELCH.01/CTP