FNUS74 KLZK 312106 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR CHARCOL FIELDS SAR...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 406 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1550 CDT ON MAY 31. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD BE SEEN DURING THIS PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN ANY COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE SEVERAL INCHES THE PAST COUPLE DAYS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 71. RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT...BECOMING 70 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 21 TO 29 MPH INCREASING TO 28 TO 32 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 2600 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING TO AROUND 1000 FT OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 360 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING TO AROUND 200 FT OVERNIGHT. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT. LVORI...............1. OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY WEATHER COV.....CHC.............................LKLY........... WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............81 81 81 80 79 79 78 78 77 76 75 75 RH..............65 66 66 68 69 69 70 71 72 74 75 76 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 11 11 7 7 7 7 7 7 11 14 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.8 8 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.29 29 25 21 17 20 24 28 30 32 32 31 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 70 70 70 70 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75. RH..................MIN 75 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING WEST 6 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 21 TO 30 MPH BECOMING EAST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 14 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 4000 FT MSL. MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 1809 FT AGL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............74 71 71 71 72 73 73 74 74 74 74 73 RH..............77 85 85 84 81 79 77 76 75 75 75 76 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SE E SE S SW SW W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 16 14 12 9 7 6 5 6 7 9 10 20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 14 11 7 6 5 7 7 11 11 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S SE E SE S SW SW W W W EYE LVL WND SPD.4 10 8 7 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 EYE LVL WND GST.11 11 11 8 6 4 4 3 4 4 6 6 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S E E SE S SW SW W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.30 26 21 15 10 12 14 17 18 20 20 20 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 80 80 80 80 70 60 60 60 60 60 60 $$ FORECASTER...M TREXLER REQUESTED BY...TONY COLLINS TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20130531.CHARC.01/LZK