FNUS75 KBOU 032319 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BELL WILDFIRE...EVERGREEN FIRE RESCUE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 515 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. LOCAL CHANNELING OF THE TERRAIN MAY ALTER THE WIND FLOW WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. HUMIDITY READINGS WILL REMAIN LOW. A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEARBY TERRAIN THROUGH 2100 WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 2100 WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HUMIDITY WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE...WITH ONLY FAIR RECOVERY EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WETTING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82. MIN HUMIDITY........8-10%. WIND (20 FT)........WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......18000-19000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2000...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........55%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIXING HEIGHT.......17100 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-30 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........24%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 13200-14200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0800...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BLUE BELL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/03-16 69 10 2 77 9 W 16 25 5 2 W 29 19021 W 24408674 E 06/03-17 69 10 2 75 10 W 16 25 4 2 W 29 18042 W 24380015 E 06/03-18 62 10 2 72 12 W 15 24 4 2 W 29 17063 W 24351356 E 06/03-19 62 10 2 69 14 WNW 14 21 4 2 W 31 13378 W 25283212 E 06/03-20 58 10 2 64 19 WNW 12 18 3 2 W 32 9693 W 26215068 E 06/03-21 58 6 1 60 23 NW 9 15 3 1 W 33 6007 W 28146923 V 06/03-22 46 6 1 57 28 NW 8 13 3 1 W 36 4184 W 22 99555 G 06/03-23 46 6 1 55 32 NW 7 7 3 1 W 39 2361 WNW 16 52186 F 06/04-00 26 3 1 53 36 NW 6 6 3 1 W 41 538 WNW 10 4817 P 06/04-01 26 3 1 51 40 NW 6 6 3 1 W 45 515 NW 9 3961 P 06/04-02 17 3 1 49 42 WNW 6 6 3 1 W 48 492 NW 7 3105 P 06/04-03 17 3 1 47 45 WNW 6 6 3 1 W 53 469 NNW 6 2249 P 06/04-04 17 3 1 45 50 WNW 6 6 3 1 W 52 485 NW 5 2045 P 06/04-05 17 3 1 43 55 W 6 6 3 1 W 51 500 WNW 5 1840 P 06/04-06 28 6 1 44 55 W 6 6 3 1 W 49 515 W 3 1636 P 06/04-07 28 6 1 48 52 W 6 6 3 1 W 49 3758 W 12 85190 G 06/04-08 28 6 1 55 43 W 6 6 3 1 W 49 7001 W 20168744 E 06/04-09 28 6 1 62 35 WSW 5 5 3 1 W 49 10244 W 29252298 E 06/04-10 28 6 1 63 32 W 3 3 3 1 W 49 11449 W 26265605 E 06/04-11 28 6 1 65 28 W 2 2 4 1 W 48 12654 W 25278911 E 06/04-12 61 10 2 66 25 CALM 1 4 2 W 48 13859 W 24292217 E 06/04-13 61 10 2 67 24 CALM 1 4 2 W 45 14138 W 22269726 E 06/04-14 61 10 2 67 25 N 2 2 4 2 W 43 14417 W 20247234 E 06/04-15 70 28 8 67 26 NE 3 3 4 4 W 39 14695 W 17224742 E 06/04-16 70 28 8 67 27 NNE 3 3 4 4 W 40 13700 W 16197316 E 06/04-17 70 28 8 66 28 N 3 3 4 4 W 40 12706 W 15169889 E 06/04-18 72 34 13 63 32 N 3 3 4 4 W 41 11711 W 14142463 V 06/04-19 72 34 13 60 37 N 3 3 4 4 W 39 9058 SW 10100044 V 06/04-20 72 34 13 57 41 NE 5 5 3 4 W 37 6405 SSE 8 57625 F 06/04-21 72 34 13 55 45 ENE 5 5 3 4 W 35 3752 ESE 5 15207 P 06/04-22 72 34 13 53 49 NE 5 5 3 4 W 36 3818 E 5 15120 P 06/04-23 72 34 13 51 53 NE 5 5 3 4 W 36 3885 E 5 15034 P 06/05-00 72 17 3 50 56 NNE 5 5 3 1 W 37 3951 E 5 14948 P 06/05-01 72 17 3 49 59 NNE 6 6 3 1 W 40 3636 E 5 13806 P 06/05-02 72 17 3 47 65 NNE 6 6 3 1 W 43 3321 NE 5 12664 P 06/05-03 72 17 3 46 68 NNE 6 6 3 1 W 46 3006 NE 5 11521 P 06/05-04 72 17 3 44 73 NNE 3 3 3 1 W 47 2931 ENE 3 9573 P 06/05-05 72 17 3 43 75 NNE 2 2 3 1 W 47 2855 SE 3 7625 P 06/05-06 56 6 1 44 70 CALM 0 3 1 W 48 2780 SSE 2 5677 P 06/05-07 56 6 1 47 61 CALM 0 3 1 W 47 4145 S 6 30949 P 06/05-08 56 6 1 52 48 CALM 0 3 1 W 46 5510 SW 10 56220 F 06/05-09 56 6 1 57 39 CALM 1 3 1 W 45 6874 W 14 81492 G 06/05-10 56 6 1 60 33 ENE 2 2 3 1 W 46 7949 W 14 98334 G 06/05-11 56 6 1 61 31 NE 3 3 2 1 W 47 9023 W 15115176 V 06/05-12 74 34 13 62 30 NE 5 5 2 4 W 48 10097 W 15132019 V 06/05-13 74 34 13 62 30 ENE 6 6 2 4 W 47 10244 W 15128562 V 06/05-14 74 34 13 63 31 ENE 6 6 3 4 W 46 10390 W 14125105 V 06/05-15 74 34 13 63 32 ENE 6 6 3 4 W 45 10536 W 14121649 V 06/05-16 74 34 13 63 34 ENE 6 6 3 4 W 43 10189 W 13110196 V 06/05-17 74 34 13 62 38 ENE 5 5 3 4 W 41 9842 W 12 98744 G 06/05-18 54 21 4 61 41 E 5 5 3 3 WNW 39 9495 W 10 87291 G 06/05-19 54 21 4 58 47 E 5 5 3 3 WNW 38 7880 W 8 62328 G 06/05-20 54 21 4 55 53 E 5 5 3 3 WNW 36 6265 W 6 37366 P 06/05-21 54 21 4 53 57 ESE 5 5 3 3 WNW 35 4650 W 3 12403 P 06/05-22 54 21 4 51 61 SE 3 3 3 3 WNW 32 4189 W 3 11661 P 06/05-23 54 21 4 49 64 S 2 2 3 3 NW 30 3727 W 3 10918 P 06/06-00 29 9 2 48 66 SSW 2 2 3 1 NW 28 3265 W 3 10176 P 06/06-01 29 9 2 48 64 SW 2 2 3 1 NW 26 3010 W 3 9306 P 06/06-02 29 9 2 47 65 SW 3 3 3 1 NW 25 2756 W 3 8436 P 06/06-03 29 9 2 46 65 SW 5 5 3 1 NW 24 2501 W 3 7566 P 06/06-04 29 9 2 44 68 WSW 6 6 3 1 NW 25 2046 W 3 6157 P 06/06-05 29 9 2 43 67 WSW 6 6 2 1 NW 26 1591 W 3 4748 P 06/06-06 44 10 2 44 62 W 6 6 2 2 NW 28 1136 W 3 3339 P 06/06-07 44 10 2 49 50 W 5 5 2 2 NW 28 3888 W 6 26311 P 06/06-08 44 10 2 55 39 WNW 2 2 2 2 NW 28 6640 NW 7 49282 F 06/06-09 44 10 2 61 31 CALM 1 2 2 NW 29 9392 NW 9 72254 G 06/06-10 44 10 2 65 26 NNW 2 2 2 2 NW 29 10921 NW 9 87475 G 06/06-11 44 10 2 67 24 NE 3 3 2 2 NW 29 12450 NW 9102696 V 06/06-12 52 18 4 68 23 ENE 6 6 2 3 NW 29 13979 NW 9117917 V 06/06-13 52 18 4 69 23 ENE 7 7 2 3 NW 30 14326 NW 9111916 V 06/06-14 52 18 4 69 24 ENE 7 7 3 3 WNW 31 14673 WNW 8105914 V 06/06-15 52 18 4 69 25 ENE 7 7 3 3 WNW 31 15020 WNW 8 99912 G 06/06-16 52 18 4 68 27 ENE 7 7 3 3 WNW 31 13854 WNW 7 82589 G 06/06-17 52 18 4 67 29 ENE 6 6 3 3 WNW 30 12688 WNW 6 65266 G 06/06-18 53 20 4 64 34 ENE 6 6 3 3 WNW 30 11523 WNW 5 47943 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130603.BLUEB.01/BOU