FNUS75 KBOU 041325 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BELL...JEFFERSON COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 705 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0655 MDT ON JUNE 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE FIRE AREA WILL BE IN AN INVERSION LAYER...NEAR THE TOP OF THIS MORNINGS CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS. THE LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND HUMIDITIES MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST... BUT THERE COULD BE INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AIR WITH WEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONGER VARIABLE WINDS BUT WOULD ALSO LIKELY INCREASE HUMIDITIES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WETTING THERE WILL BE. IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH FAIRLY HIGH HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY GRADUALLY WARMING/DRYING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THAT WITH NO EXTREME CONDITIONS FORESEEN. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1000...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL 1500...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........24-28%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTHEAST. VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 5000 FT AGL BY 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41. MAX HUMIDITY........85-95%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN LOWERING TO 1500 FT AGL BY 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................25 PERCENT INCREASING TO 35 PERCENT IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........37%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 2-5 MPH INCREASING TO 4-10 MPH BY 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1100...AND 5000 FT AGL BY 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST AROUND 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................15 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BLUE BELL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/04-07 44 2 0 48 45 W 6 6 4 1 W 47 2456 WNW 6 21003 P 06/04-08 44 2 0 54 36 W 6 6 4 1 W 47 4214 NW 8 40356 F 06/04-09 44 2 0 60 29 W 6 6 4 1 WNW 48 5971 NNW 12 59709 F 06/04-10 24 2 0 64 26 WSW 7 7 4 1 W 47 7390 WNW 13 84320 G 06/04-11 24 2 0 66 24 SSW 9 9 4 1 W 47 8810 WSW 14108931 V 06/04-12 44 2 0 66 25 S 10 16 4 1 W 47 10229 SW 15133543 V 06/04-13 49 17 3 67 25 SE 12 17 4 3 W 44 10125 SW 15127774 V 06/04-14 61 17 3 67 25 ENE 12 17 4 3 W 40 10020 SSW 14122005 V 06/04-15 73 34 13 66 27 NNE 12 17 4 4 W 36 9916 SSW 14116236 V 06/04-16 78 34 13 65 29 NNE 12 17 4 4 W 36 8845 SW 12 93225 G 06/04-17 78 34 13 63 33 NE 10 16 4 4 W 35 7774 WSW 10 70213 G 06/04-18 78 50 26 61 36 NE 10 16 4 4 W 35 6704 W 8 47201 F 06/04-19 79 50 26 58 41 NE 10 15 4 4 W 35 4757 SW 7 32807 P 06/04-20 79 50 26 55 46 NE 9 14 4 4 W 36 2810 SE 6 18413 P 06/04-21 79 58 35 52 52 NE 9 14 4 3 W 37 863 E 6 4019 P 06/04-22 79 58 35 50 56 NE 9 9 4 3 W 37 835 E 6 3848 P 06/04-23 79 58 35 48 60 NE 9 14 3 3 W 38 807 E 6 3676 P 06/05-00 80 58 35 47 63 NE 9 14 3 3 W 38 779 E 5 3505 P 06/05-01 80 58 35 46 66 NE 9 9 3 3 W 39 1197 E 6 5472 P 06/05-02 80 58 35 45 69 ENE 8 8 3 3 W 40 1615 NE 6 7439 P 06/05-03 80 58 35 44 73 ENE 8 8 3 3 W 41 2033 NNE 6 9406 P 06/05-04 80 58 35 42 81 ENE 8 8 3 3 W 45 1966 NNE 5 7742 P 06/05-05 80 58 35 41 86 E 8 8 3 3 W 47 1898 NE 3 6078 P 06/05-06 74 29 8 41 86 E 7 7 3 1 W 51 1830 NE 2 4415 P 06/05-07 74 29 8 44 71 E 5 5 3 1 W 49 2543 N 3 8998 P 06/05-08 74 29 8 47 59 ENE 2 2 2 1 W 48 3256 WNW 5 13582 P 06/05-09 74 29 8 50 50 CALM 1 2 1 W 47 3969 W 6 18166 P 06/05-10 74 29 8 53 43 CALM 1 2 1 W 49 4877 W 6 27025 P 06/05-11 74 29 8 55 38 NE 3 3 2 1 W 51 5785 W 7 35885 P 06/05-12 75 34 13 56 37 NE 5 5 2 2 W 52 6693 W 8 44744 F 06/05-13 75 34 13 56 38 ENE 6 6 2 2 W 49 6231 W 7 39845 P 06/05-14 75 34 13 56 39 ENE 6 6 3 2 W 47 5769 W 7 34945 P 06/05-15 75 34 13 56 42 ENE 6 6 3 2 W 45 5306 W 7 30046 P 06/05-16 75 34 13 55 46 ENE 6 6 3 2 W 43 5029 W 5 22735 P 06/05-17 75 34 13 55 48 ENE 5 5 3 2 W 40 4751 W 3 15424 P 06/05-18 54 21 4 54 52 E 5 5 3 3 W 37 4474 W 2 8114 P 06/05-19 54 21 4 51 60 E 5 5 3 3 W 35 4015 CALM 6002 P 06/05-20 54 21 4 49 66 E 5 5 2 3 WNW 33 3556 CALM 3890 P 06/05-21 54 21 4 47 71 ESE 5 5 2 3 WNW 31 3098 CALM 1778 P 06/05-22 54 21 4 45 76 SE 3 3 2 3 WNW 29 2810 CALM 2171 P 06/05-23 54 21 4 44 78 S 2 2 2 3 WNW 25 2521 CALM 2564 P 06/06-00 29 9 2 44 76 SSW 2 2 2 1 NW 23 2233 CALM 2957 P 06/06-01 29 9 2 43 78 SW 2 2 2 1 NW 22 1829 SW 2 2942 P 06/06-02 29 9 2 43 76 SW 3 3 2 1 WNW 21 1426 SW 2 2927 P 06/06-03 29 9 2 42 76 SW 5 5 2 1 WNW 21 1022 WSW 3 2912 P 06/06-04 29 9 2 40 79 WSW 6 6 2 1 NW 20 837 WSW 3 2520 P 06/06-05 29 9 2 39 79 WSW 6 6 2 1 NW 20 653 W 3 2129 P 06/06-06 44 10 2 41 70 W 6 6 2 2 NW 20 468 W 5 1737 P 06/06-07 44 10 2 46 56 W 5 5 2 2 NW 21 3428 WNW 7 31515 P 06/06-08 44 10 2 54 41 WNW 2 2 2 2 NNW 21 6387 NW 9 61293 G 06/06-09 44 10 2 61 31 CALM 1 2 2 NNW 21 9347 NNW 12 91071 G 06/06-10 44 10 2 65 26 NNW 2 2 2 2 NNW 22 11068 NNW 10101173 V 06/06-11 44 10 2 67 24 NE 3 3 2 2 NNW 23 12789 NNW 10111275 V 06/06-12 52 18 4 68 23 ENE 6 6 2 3 NNW 24 14510 NNW 9121377 V 06/06-13 52 18 4 68 24 ENE 7 7 2 3 NNW 23 14395 NNW 8107714 V 06/06-14 52 18 4 68 25 ENE 7 7 3 3 NW 23 14280 NW 8 94051 G 06/06-15 52 18 4 68 26 ENE 7 7 3 3 NW 23 14164 NW 7 80388 G 06/06-16 52 18 4 67 28 ENE 7 7 3 3 NW 24 13465 NW 6 70586 G 06/06-17 52 18 4 66 30 ENE 6 6 3 3 NW 24 12766 WNW 6 60783 G 06/06-18 53 20 4 65 31 ENE 6 6 3 3 NW 25 12066 WNW 5 50981 F 06/06-19 53 20 4 62 36 E 6 6 3 3 NW 25 10198 W 5 43962 F 06/06-20 53 20 4 59 41 SE 5 5 3 3 NW 24 8330 SW 5 36943 P 06/06-21 53 20 4 56 47 SSE 5 5 3 3 NW 24 6462 SSW 6 29925 P 06/06-22 53 20 4 54 51 S 5 5 3 3 NW 22 5798 S 6 29957 P 06/06-23 53 20 4 53 54 SSW 3 3 3 3 NW 21 5135 S 7 29990 P 06/07-00 47 12 2 52 56 SW 3 3 3 2 NW 20 4472 S 8 30022 P 06/07-01 47 12 2 51 59 SW 3 3 3 2 NW 18 3772 S 8 25240 P 06/07-02 47 12 2 50 60 SW 5 5 3 2 NW 17 3071 SSW 8 20458 P 06/07-03 47 12 2 49 62 WSW 5 5 3 2 NW 16 2371 SSW 8 15675 P 06/07-04 47 12 2 46 68 WSW 6 6 3 2 NW 16 1759 SW 7 11212 P 06/07-05 47 12 2 45 69 WSW 7 7 3 2 WNW 15 1146 WSW 6 6749 P 06/07-06 52 13 3 46 65 WSW 7 7 3 2 WNW 14 534 WSW 5 2285 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130604.BLUEB.01/BOU