FNUS75 KPUB 121606
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK FOREST FIRE...EL PASO COUNTY DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1006 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
MDT THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS JUST PRIOR TO 10 AM WERE INDICATING
WEAK WINDS OVER THE BLACK FOREST REGION. WEAK EAST WINDS WERE NOTED
SURROUNDING THE BURN AREA...WITH CALM WINDS OR WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION IN NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. WINDS AT
THE COLORADO SPRINGS FIRE WERE FROM THE SOUTH AT 11 MPH.

HIGH RESOLUTION SIMULATIONS ARE INDICATING THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY DURING THIS HOUR. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH BETWEEN 11 AM AND 12 NOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FIRE AND ASSOCIATED
SMOKE PLUME TO MOVE TO THE NORTH.

THE ONLY CONCERN THAT I HAVE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIMULATIONS SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM. THESE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO OCCUR
OVER THE BURN AREA.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING SOUTH AT 5 TO 12 MPH THROUGH 11 AM...
                    THEN SOUTH 12-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......14500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTH
                    AROUND 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1100. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(26 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58F.
MAX HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    NORTH 3 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 0500.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(36 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89F.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH 3 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 10-14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 15000 FT AGL AFTER 1100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...HODANISH
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130612.BLACK.10/PUB