FNUS75 KPUB 121658
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK FOREST FIRE...EL PASO COUNTY DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1058 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
MDT THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS JUST PRIOR TO 11 AM WERE INDICATING
SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING IN NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS
WERE TYPICALLY 5 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR AND GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN SPEED. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 25
MPH. BY MID AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SAME DIRECTION AT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

THE ONLY CONCERN THAT I HAVE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIMULATIONS SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM. THESE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO OCCUR
OVER THE BURN AREA.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(37 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING SOUTH 12-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH AFTER 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......14500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58F.
MAX HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    NORTH 3 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 22 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN WEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 0300.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(36 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89F.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH 3 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 10-14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 15500 FT AGL AFTER
                    1100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 19 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...HODANISH
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130612.BLACK.10/PUB