FNUS75 KPUB 122221
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK FOREST FIRE...EL PASO COUNTY DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

AT 4 PM...GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THIS DIRECTION AND SPEED THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD
START TO DECREASE AFTER 1900 (7 PM)...AND THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST BY LATE EVENING. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE
WINDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EAST OR NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY. SMOKE WILL BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND IN THE CITY
OF COLORADO SPRINGS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING
IF VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER TELLER COUNTY SENDING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY REGION.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58F.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AND EAST THROUGH 2200. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
                    A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION
                    THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 4 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN SOUTH
                    AROUND 19 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD UNTIL
                    2000...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(36 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTH 11-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 14000 FT AGL AFTER
                    1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1000.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...HODANISH
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130612.BLACK.15/PUB