FNUS75 KBOU 140048 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG MEADOWS...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 606 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1741 MDT ON JUNE 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW HUMIDITIES... KEEPING FIRE DANGER HIGH. BY SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES...BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 1800...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39. MAX HUMIDITY........63%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIXING HEIGHT.......15000-16000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 MPH UNTIL 1800. 15-20 MPH AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1800. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). LAL.................1 MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........15%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 3200 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 5900 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 8600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 11300 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 14100 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 17400-18400 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 20000 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 17400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 14800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25-35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 0800...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. LAL.................1 MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36. MAX HUMIDITY........70%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......15000-16000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...DECREASING TO BELOW 1000 FEET BY 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1800...THEN BECOMING POOR BY 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........16%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST/SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN QUICKLY INCREASING TO 12000-15000 FT BY 1000. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST/SOUTHWEST 30-40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 0800...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 8-11 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG MEADOWS. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/13-17 60 10 2 72 20 WSW 20 32 4 2 SW 56 16397 SW 38549181 E 06/13-18 51 10 2 68 23 WSW 20 31 4 2 SW 55 14595 SW 36457597 E 06/13-19 51 10 2 64 27 WSW 17 29 4 2 SW 54 9892 SW 30307474 E 06/13-20 51 10 2 59 34 WSW 15 24 4 2 SW 53 5189 SW 23157350 E 06/13-21 48 10 2 54 41 WSW 13 21 4 2 SW 51 485 WSW 17 7227 P 06/13-22 48 10 2 51 46 WSW 10 16 4 2 SW 51 573 WSW 17 8477 P 06/13-23 48 10 2 48 51 WSW 8 13 3 2 WSW 51 661 SW 17 9726 P 06/14-00 26 1 0 46 53 WSW 7 7 3 1 WSW 51 749 SW 17 10976 P 06/14-01 26 1 0 45 53 WSW 7 7 3 1 WSW 55 690 WSW 18 10713 P 06/14-02 26 1 0 45 51 WSW 9 14 4 1 WSW 59 630 WSW 20 10450 P 06/14-03 26 1 0 43 53 WSW 10 16 4 1 WSW 62 571 WSW 21 10188 P 06/14-04 26 1 0 41 57 WSW 12 17 4 1 WSW 61 560 WSW 20 9795 P 06/14-05 26 1 0 39 63 WSW 12 18 4 1 WSW 60 550 WSW 20 9402 P 06/14-06 27 0 0 40 62 WSW 12 18 4 1 WSW 59 539 WSW 20 9008 P 06/14-07 27 0 0 45 52 WSW 12 18 4 1 WSW 56 3217 WSW 26105582 V 06/14-08 27 0 0 53 39 WSW 12 18 5 1 WSW 54 5895 WSW 33202156 E 06/14-09 27 0 0 60 29 WSW 12 18 5 1 WSW 53 8573 WSW 40298730 E 06/14-10 27 0 0 65 23 WSW 13 20 5 1 WSW 51 11318 WSW 39374158 E 06/14-11 27 0 0 68 19 WSW 14 22 4 1 WSW 48 14063 WSW 37449586 E 06/14-12 36 6 1 71 16 WSW 15 24 4 1 WSW 46 16808 WSW 36525015 E 06/14-13 36 6 1 73 15 WSW 16 25 4 1 WSW 44 17872 WSW 35529862 E 06/14-14 36 6 1 74 15 WSW 16 26 4 1 SW 41 18936 WSW 32534710 E 06/14-15 36 6 1 74 15 WSW 16 25 4 1 SW 38 20000 SW 31539557 E 06/14-16 36 6 1 72 15 WSW 15 25 4 1 SW 36 17389 WSW 29438866 E 06/14-17 36 6 1 68 16 WSW 14 23 3 1 SW 33 14777 WSW 25338176 E 06/14-18 31 4 1 64 18 W 13 21 3 1 WSW 31 12166 WSW 23237485 E 06/14-19 31 4 1 59 23 W 10 16 3 1 WSW 29 9376 WSW 18171294 E 06/14-20 31 4 1 55 29 W 8 13 4 1 WSW 26 6585 W 15105102 V 06/14-21 31 4 1 50 36 WNW 6 6 4 1 WSW 24 3794 W 12 38911 P 06/14-22 31 4 1 47 41 WNW 5 5 4 1 WSW 25 2720 WNW 9 26547 P 06/14-23 31 4 1 45 44 NW 3 3 4 1 WSW 25 1646 NNW 7 14184 P 06/15-00 18 2 0 43 49 NW 2 2 4 1 WSW 25 572 N 3 1821 P 06/15-01 18 2 0 42 55 NNW 2 2 4 1 WSW 29 564 N 2 1348 P 06/15-02 18 2 0 41 62 NNW 2 2 5 1 WSW 31 557 NNW 2 875 P 06/15-03 14 2 0 39 70 NNW 2 2 5 1 WSW 33 550 CALM 402 P 06/15-04 14 2 0 37 72 NW 2 2 5 1 WSW 35 539 WNW 2 1027 P 06/15-05 14 2 0 36 70 WSW 2 2 4 1 WSW 35 529 WSW 3 1651 P 06/15-06 10 1 0 38 62 SSW 2 2 4 1 WSW 36 518 SSW 5 2276 P 06/15-07 10 1 0 44 52 SSW 3 3 4 1 WSW 37 4435 SSW 13 95135 G 06/15-08 10 1 0 52 41 SSW 5 5 4 1 WSW 38 8352 SW 20187994 E 06/15-09 10 1 0 60 32 SSW 7 7 4 1 WSW 39 12268 WSW 26280853 E 06/15-10 10 1 0 66 23 SW 8 14 4 1 WSW 39 14408 WSW 28347347 E 06/15-11 10 1 0 68 19 WSW 10 16 4 1 WSW 38 16547 WSW 29413842 E 06/15-12 40 10 2 70 16 WSW 12 18 4 2 WSW 38 18686 WSW 30480336 E 06/15-13 40 10 2 71 16 WSW 14 22 4 2 WSW 35 19017 WSW 29471656 E 06/15-14 40 10 2 72 17 WSW 15 24 3 2 WSW 32 19347 WSW 28462977 E 06/15-15 40 10 2 72 18 WSW 16 25 3 2 WSW 29 19678 WSW 26454297 E 06/15-16 40 10 2 70 18 W 15 24 3 2 WSW 28 17179 W 24368756 E 06/15-17 40 10 2 67 19 W 14 22 3 2 W 26 14680 W 22283216 E 06/15-18 36 8 2 63 22 W 12 18 3 1 W 25 12181 W 18197675 E 06/15-19 36 8 2 58 28 W 10 16 3 1 W 25 9402 W 18151811 E 06/15-20 36 8 2 53 36 W 8 13 3 1 W 24 6623 WSW 18105947 V 06/15-21 36 8 2 49 46 W 7 7 3 1 W 23 3844 WSW 18 60083 G 06/15-22 36 8 2 46 52 W 6 6 3 1 W 26 3755 WSW 20 62607 G 06/15-23 36 8 2 43 57 W 6 6 3 1 WSW 30 3666 WSW 21 65131 G 06/16-00 14 2 0 42 57 W 6 6 3 1 WSW 32 3577 W 22 67655 G 06/16-01 14 2 0 41 59 W 5 5 3 1 WSW 36 2463 W 17 45662 F 06/16-02 14 2 0 41 58 WNW 5 5 3 1 WSW 39 1350 W 13 23669 P 06/16-03 14 2 0 40 59 WNW 5 5 3 1 W 41 236 W 8 1675 P 06/16-04 14 2 0 38 63 W 6 6 3 1 W 41 207 W 9 1547 P 06/16-05 14 2 0 37 63 WSW 7 7 3 1 W 40 177 W 9 1418 P 06/16-06 29 5 1 38 59 WSW 8 13 3 1 W 39 147 WSW 10 1289 P 06/16-07 29 5 1 44 46 WSW 9 14 3 1 W 38 3974 WSW 15 81234 G 06/16-08 29 5 1 52 33 WSW 9 15 3 1 W 37 7802 W 20161179 E 06/16-09 29 5 1 59 25 W 10 16 3 1 W 36 11629 W 24241124 E 06/16-10 29 5 1 64 20 W 12 18 3 1 W 33 13746 W 24294850 E 06/16-11 29 5 1 67 17 W 13 21 3 1 W 32 15864 W 25348577 E 06/16-12 53 10 2 69 15 W 14 22 3 2 W 30 17981 W 25402304 E 06/16-13 53 10 2 70 15 W 14 22 3 2 W 26 18286 W 24383876 E 06/16-14 53 10 2 71 15 W 14 22 4 2 W 22 18590 W 23365448 E 06/16-15 53 10 2 71 16 W 13 21 4 2 W 18 18895 W 21347020 E 06/16-16 53 10 2 70 17 W 12 18 4 2 W 20 17712 W 20311640 E 06/16-17 53 10 2 68 18 W 9 15 3 2 W 21 16530 W 20276259 E 06/16-18 42 11 2 65 21 W 8 13 3 2 W 21 15347 W 18240878 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...SID HALL TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130613.BIGME.01/BOU