FNUS75 KGJT 151514
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DARK CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
914 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0833 MDT ON JUNE 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NEW WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUD BASES AT
8000-9000 FEET ABOVE THE BURN SITE. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND WIND THAN RAIN. THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL REMAIN DRY...THE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR
ENHANCED STRONG GUSTS FROM OUTFLOW WINDS. I HAVE ESTIMATED GUSTS
40 MPH NEAR AFTERNOON VIRGA-SHOWERS BUT ISOLATED LOCAL GUSTS COULD
GET EVEN HIGHER. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR THE COLORADO ZONES
JUST TO YOUR EAST WHERE THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS FUELS ARE DEEMED
CRITICAL. REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE: ANY VIRGA OR SHOWER
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FIRE SITE MAY QUICKLY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. MOST SHOWERS WILL END WITH
SUNSET BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE INVERSION WEAK AND MAY BREAK AT TIMES. THE MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH
                    AT NOON WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH. STRONGER
                    ERRATIC GUSTS TO 45 MPH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 6.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL...EXCEPT 23000 FT NEAR
                    STORMS.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........27-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 3-5 MPH BUT WITH ERRATIC PERIODS DUE TO
                    NEARBY STORMS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
                    OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL OR LESS EXCEPT UP TO 5000 FT NEAR
                    STORMS.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%). ISOLATED AFTERNOON
                    SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FIRE
                    SITE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH
                    WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...ENGLEMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130615.DARKC.01/GJT