FNUS75 KGJT 151847
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR WARD GULCH...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1247 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1222 MDT ON JUNE 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR DRY
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NEW WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUD BASES AT
9000-10000 FEET ABOVE THE BURN SITE. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND WIND THAN RAIN. THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL REMAIN DRY...THE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR
ENHANCED STRONG GUSTS FROM OUTFLOW WINDS. I HAVE ESTIMATED GUSTS
40 MPH NEAR AFTERNOON VIRGA-SHOWERS BUT ISOLATED LOCAL GUSTS COULD
GET EVEN HIGHER. REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE: ANY VIRGA OR SHOWER
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FIRE SITE MAY QUICKLY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. MOST SHOWERS WILL END WITH
SUNSET BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE INVERSION WEAK AND MAY BREAK AT TIMES. THE MOISTURE
THINS ON SUNDAY BUT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
                    (30-40%). ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
                    LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-10%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH WITH AFTERNOON
                    GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    AS HIGH AS 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS/
                    BUILDUPS/VIRGA.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................6.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX OF 15000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 1-5 MPH BUT EXPECT PERIODS OF ERRATIC
                    WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO STORMS. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT EXCELLENT NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....GENERALLY NORTHEAST 8 MPH EXCEPT ERRATIC NEAR
                    STORMS.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-91 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 1-4 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    MID-MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 8-12
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH INCREASING TO 21 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...JIM GENUNG
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130615.WARDG.01/GJT