FNUS73 KGRR 151258 FWSGRR FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BROHMAN BUTTERFLY UNIT D...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 858 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON JUNE 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20 PERCENT THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT BY EVENING AND TO 60 PERCENT TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH DEW POINTS NUDGING TOWARD 60F TOWARDS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY WITH A DRYING NORTHWEST WIND AFTER RAIN TONIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2900-3400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-300 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 300-700 (GOOD TO EXCELLENT). TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........73 76 78 83 88 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............70 72 74 75 72 RH..............53 52 53 54 63 20 FT WIND......SW 11 SW 13 SW 13 SW 13 S 12 20 FT GUST......15 15 20 20 15 HAINES INDEX....5 4 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1500 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-200 (POOR TO FAIR). .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79. RH..................MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 17 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200-8700 FT AGL...THEN DECREASING TO 6500 FT AGL LATE IN THE DAY DECREASING TO 4100 FT AGL IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....100-400 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 700-900 (EXCELLENT) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 1200-1500 (EXCELLENT) THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 1000 (EXCELLENT) LATE IN THE DAY DECREASING TO 500 (GOOD). $$ FORECASTER...DUKE REQUESTED BY...KORY BORGMAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130615.BROHM.01/GRR