FNUS75 KGJT 161757
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR WARD GULCH...UCR IMT3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1157 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1046 MDT ON JUNE 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE WORKING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE DEFINED WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE THUNDERSTORM TO FIRE
SITE THIS MORNING IS MOVING EAST AND THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN STORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH 1300. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS REFORMING TO THE WEST OF
OF THE FIRE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT SOME BUILD UPS OVER THE
NEARBY HIGHER RIDGES...WITH A SMALL THREAT OF A STORM NEAR THE FIRE
ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LESSEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF
THE FIRE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STRONGER TODAY BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS
MOVE IN ALOFT TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS SHOULD
SET UP AND PERSIST TO 1000 ON MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81 TO 86 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AT 11 TO 16 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED  NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 14100 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH...BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN BY
                    LATE EVENING.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THROUGH 11000 THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) WITH BUILD
                    UP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND
                    EAST.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH 1000
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH BY 1300 THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT BY 1400 IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 14600 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DWIGHT HENNINGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130616.WARDG.01/GJT