FNUS72 KJAX 191206
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ZONE 15 PRESCRIBED BURN...FL PARK SVC - PAYNES PRAIRIE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
806 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0900 EDT ON JUNE 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH BY LATE MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO NEAR 15 MPH. HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARDS THE EAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BOTH COASTS SEA BREEZE FRONTS WILL BECOME ACTIVE WITH
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOWER DISPERSION
VALUES.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS... SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 EARLY...INCREASING TO 85.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........41     43     44     45     44
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............80     87     91     92     89
RH..............79     63     53     50     53
20 FT WIND......SW 6   SW 8   SW 10  W 10   W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1500   2600   4800   5900   5900
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9   SW 13  SW 15  W 15   W 15
LVORI...........4      1      1      1      1
DISPERSION INDX.5      41     56     62     85
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     20     30     30     40
LAL.............1      2      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 TO 14 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....70...DECREASING TO 5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........44     43     41     38     36     41
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............87     82     78     75     73     72
RH..............57     68     80     87     93     96
20 FT WIND......W 8    W 7    W 5    W 2    W 2    W 1
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     10     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....4700   2200   1300   800    500    200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14   W 12   W 12   W 8    W 2    W 1
LVORI...........1      3      3      5      6      8
DISPERSION INDX.70     34     21     5      5      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     30     20     20     20     20
LAL.............3      3      2      2      2      2

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    NEAR 5 MPH BY MID-MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....5...INCREASING TO 40.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............6.

$$
FORECASTER...NELSON
REQUESTED BY...ANDREA CHRISTMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...TEST
.TAG 20130619.ZONE1.01/JAX