FNUS75 KGJT 210438
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRUSH CREEK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 PM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2207 MDT ON JUNE 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...HIGH HAINES INDEX AND
DRY FUELS BELOW 9000 FEET...

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THOUGH THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THIS SITE APPEARS
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THIS FLOW...BUT SHOULD STILL EXPERIENCE
INTERMITTENT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH FROM 1200 UNTIL ABOUT
2100 FRIDAY EVENING...WITH UPVALLEY WINDS DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING WITH SHALLOW SURFACE BASED
INVERSIONS FORMING. UNSTABLE...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP TOMORROW AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 49 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNVALLEY WINDS OF 3 TO 8
                    MPH THROUGH SUNRISE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR BY MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH NEAR GRADUALLY
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AT 4 TO 8 MPH
                    BY 1000. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT
                    15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH BY 1300.
                    UPVALLEY WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
                    SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
                    AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH AFTER 1200.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO
                    12400 FT AGL BY 1400
TRANSPORT WINDS.....TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH 100 THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 26 MPH AFTER 1200.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 51 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 TO 23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......RIDGETOP WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH 2000. UPVALLEY WINDS
                    WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DOWNVALLEY WINDS
                    BY 2000 AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR AFTER 2200.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH THROUGH 2100 THEN 5.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL AFTER 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 26 MPH THROUGH 2000 THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNVALLEY AT 5 TO 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130620.BRUSH.01/GJT