FNUS75 KGJT 220125
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILD ROSE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
725 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1538 MDT ON JUNE 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A PASSING SYSTEM TO THE NORTH KEEPS THE TIGHT GRADIENT
IN PLACE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN AS HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S BY 1400. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
FLOW AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BUILDING CLOUDS ON THE RIDGES BUT THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. INSTEAD GUSTIER
AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR DUE TO VIRGA. A DRY FRONT WILL BE PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD AND WILL SWITCH
THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER INVERSIONS SHOULD THEN
SET UP OVERNIGHT. A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT ALOFT MAY KEEP WIND
GUSTS BELOW 25 MPH ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THIS AT THE
MOMENT AS MIXING WILL BE DEEP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) THROUGH 1200 THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) BY 1400
                    WITH AFTERNOON BUILD UP ON THE HIGHER
                    RIDGES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79 TO 82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH 1000 THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND
                    INCREASING TO 14 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH AFTER 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........5 THROUGH 1000 THEN 6 HIGH AFTER 1200.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO
                    18400 FT AGL BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY AT 5 MPH THROUGH 1000 THEN
                    INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH BY 1200.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTY CLOUDY (40-50%) THROUGH 2000 THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........27-32%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH THROUGH 1700 THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AT
                    12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. WINDS WILL
                    BECOMING NORTH AT DECREASE WITH DOWNVALLEY WINDS
                    OF 3 TO 8 MPH EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT THROUGH 2000 THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    AFTER 2400.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......16000 FT AGL THROUGH 1800 THEN DECREASING TO LESS
                    THAN 2000 FT AGL AFTER 2400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 12 TO
                    16 MPH BY 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    BY 1500.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL THROUGH 1100 THEN INCREASING TO 15400
                    FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 18 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130621.WILDR.01/GJT