FNUS75 KBOU 221325 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG MEADOWS FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 725 AM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0621 MDT ON JUNE 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO IN EFFECT FOR COLORADO FIREWEATHER ZONES 211...213...214...216 AND 241 STARTING AT 1200 MDT TODAY. .DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING BENEATH A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF COLORADO AT THIS TIME IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER WESTERN WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFFICENT TO PRODUCE A FEW HIGH BASED...MOSTLY DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 1500 MDT TODAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF A GUSTY MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORM AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........11-16%. WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-7 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 12800-13600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN AROUND 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...BECOMING EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW UNTIL 1100...THEN 5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........48%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......12400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-30 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........14%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 3600 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 6600 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 10400-11400 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 12400-13400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 10600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 8-9 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG MEADOWS FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/22-07 4 0 0 49 32 SE 5 5 4 1 SW 32 3400 SW 13 66556 G 06/22-08 4 0 0 57 25 S 7 7 4 1 SW 32 6242 SW 18 129565 V 06/22-09 7 0 0 64 20 SW 10 16 4 1 SW 33 9084 SW 24 192574 E 06/22-10 7 0 0 68 17 SW 13 21 4 1 SW 33 10361 SW 25 234180 E 06/22-11 7 0 0 71 15 SW 15 23 3 1 SW 33 11639 SW 26 275787 E 06/22-12 26 0 0 73 13 SW 16 25 3 1 SW 33 12917 SW 29 317393 E 06/22-13 26 0 0 74 13 SW 17 28 3 1 SW 35 13154 SW 29 333603 E 06/22-14 26 8 2 75 13 WSW 17 28 3 1 SW 36 13391 WSW 30 349813 E 06/22-15 34 8 2 75 13 WSW 17 28 3 1 SW 37 13629 WSW 31 366022 E 06/22-16 34 8 2 73 14 WSW 17 28 3 1 SW 36 13217 WSW 30 341942 E 06/22-17 34 8 2 70 15 WSW 17 26 3 1 SW 35 12804 WSW 29 317861 E 06/22-18 39 5 1 67 17 WSW 16 25 3 1 WSW 33 12392 WSW 28 293781 E 06/22-19 39 5 1 63 21 WSW 15 24 3 1 WSW 33 10702 WSW 26 247286 E 06/22-20 39 5 1 60 25 W 14 23 3 1 WSW 32 9012 W 25 200791 E 06/22-21 27 5 1 56 30 W 13 21 3 1 WSW 32 7322 W 24 154296 E 06/22-22 27 5 1 53 33 W 10 17 3 1 WSW 35 5816 W 22 115542 V 06/22-23 27 5 1 51 35 W 8 13 3 1 W 38 4310 W 18 76789 G 06/23-00 13 2 0 50 36 W 6 6 3 1 W 40 2804 W 16 38035 P 06/23-01 13 2 0 49 38 W 3 3 3 1 W 39 2166 W 13 26758 P 06/23-02 13 2 0 49 38 WSW 2 2 3 1 W 38 1528 W 9 15481 P 06/23-03 13 2 0 47 42 WSW 2 2 3 1 W 37 890 WSW 6 4203 P 06/23-04 13 2 0 45 45 WSW 2 2 3 1 W 35 775 WSW 6 3638 P 06/23-05 13 2 0 43 48 SW 3 3 3 1 W 32 661 WSW 6 3073 P 06/23-06 13 1 0 44 45 SW 5 5 3 1 W 30 546 WSW 6 2508 P 06/23-07 13 1 0 48 38 SW 6 6 3 1 WSW 29 3575 WSW 8 43749 F 06/23-08 13 1 0 55 29 SSW 7 7 3 1 WSW 28 6603 WSW 12 84990 G 06/23-09 13 1 0 62 22 SSW 8 13 3 1 WSW 26 9632 WSW 15 126231 V 06/23-10 13 1 0 66 19 SSW 9 15 3 1 WSW 25 10831 WSW 16 149348 V 06/23-11 13 1 0 69 17 SW 10 16 4 1 WSW 24 12031 SW 16 172466 E 06/23-12 45 7 1 71 16 SW 10 16 4 1 WSW 24 13230 SW 17 195584 E 06/23-13 45 7 1 73 15 SW 10 17 4 1 WSW 23 13379 SW 16 193697 E 06/23-14 45 7 1 75 14 SW 10 17 4 1 WSW 24 13529 SW 16 191809 E 06/23-15 45 10 2 75 14 SW 10 16 4 2 WSW 25 13678 SW 16 189921 E 06/23-16 45 10 2 74 15 SSW 9 16 4 2 WSW 29 12124 SW 17 176320 E 06/23-17 45 10 2 71 17 SSW 9 14 3 2 SW 33 10569 SSW 18 162719 E 06/23-18 32 6 1 68 20 SSW 8 13 3 1 SW 36 9015 SSW 20 149119 V 06/23-19 32 6 1 64 23 SSW 7 7 3 1 SW 36 7080 SSW 18 116979 V 06/23-20 32 6 1 59 29 SSW 7 7 3 1 SW 33 5145 SSW 18 84839 G 06/23-21 32 6 1 56 33 SSW 6 6 3 1 SW 32 3211 S 18 52699 F 06/23-22 32 6 1 53 38 SSW 6 6 3 1 SW 32 2300 S 15 36224 P 06/23-23 32 6 1 52 40 S 5 5 3 1 SW 32 1390 SSW 12 19749 P 06/24-00 15 1 0 51 43 S 5 5 3 1 SW 33 480 SSW 8 3273 P 06/24-01 15 1 0 51 42 SSW 5 5 3 1 SW 32 480 SSW 9 3819 P 06/24-02 15 1 0 50 44 SSW 5 5 4 1 SW 31 480 SW 10 4364 P 06/24-03 15 1 0 49 44 SSW 5 5 4 1 SSW 30 481 WSW 12 4910 P 06/24-04 15 1 0 46 48 SSW 5 5 4 1 SW 31 448 WSW 12 4308 P 06/24-05 15 1 0 45 49 SSW 5 5 4 1 SW 32 415 SW 10 3705 P 06/24-06 12 2 0 46 45 SW 6 6 4 1 SW 35 382 SW 9 3103 P 06/24-07 12 2 0 51 36 SW 7 7 4 1 WSW 29 2543 WSW 14 43689 F 06/24-08 12 2 0 57 28 SW 9 14 3 1 WSW 29 4631 WSW 17 83192 G 06/24-09 12 2 0 63 21 SW 12 17 3 1 WSW 29 6719 WSW 21 122694 V 06/24-10 12 2 0 67 18 SW 13 21 3 1 WSW 28 7662 WSW 22 146829 V 06/24-11 12 2 0 70 15 WSW 15 23 3 1 SW 25 8604 WSW 23 170963 E 06/24-12 27 4 1 72 14 WSW 16 25 3 1 SW 24 9547 WSW 23 195097 E 06/24-13 27 4 1 73 13 WSW 17 28 3 1 SW 25 10008 WSW 24 207524 E 06/24-14 27 4 1 74 13 WSW 17 29 4 1 SW 26 10468 WSW 24 219951 E 06/24-15 27 4 1 74 13 WSW 18 29 4 1 SW 29 10929 WSW 24 232377 E 06/24-16 27 4 1 73 13 WSW 18 29 4 1 SW 28 9898 WSW 24 211810 E 06/24-17 27 4 1 70 15 WSW 17 29 4 1 SW 28 8867 WSW 25 191243 E 06/24-18 25 3 1 67 16 WSW 17 28 4 1 SW 26 7836 WSW 25 170675 E 06/24-19 25 3 1 63 19 WSW 16 26 1 06/24-20 25 3 1 60 21 WSW 15 24 1 06/24-21 25 3 1 56 25 WSW 14 22 1 06/24-22 25 3 1 53 28 WSW 13 20 1 06/24-23 25 3 1 51 30 WSW 12 18 1 06/25-00 21 3 1 50 32 WSW 10 16 1 06/25-01 21 3 1 50 32 WSW 10 16 1 06/25-02 21 3 1 50 32 WSW 10 16 1 06/25-03 21 3 1 49 34 WSW 10 16 1 06/25-04 21 3 1 47 37 WSW 10 17 1 06/25-05 21 3 1 45 41 WSW 12 17 1 06/25-06 40 2 0 46 40 WSW 12 18 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER REQUESTED BY...SAM DEARSTYNE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130622.BIGME.01/BOU