FNUS75 KBOU 231430 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG MEADOWS FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 825 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0634 MDT ON JUNE 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY BREEZES. THEN LOOK FOR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY AROUND MID- AFTERNOON AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD...LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS. STORMS IN YOUR AREA TODAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN OR SO TOGETHER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNSET AS INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BLOWS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........17%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 12200-13200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44. MAX HUMIDITY........49%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIXING HEIGHT.......12200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN AROUND 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........12%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHWEST 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 11700-12700 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG MEADOWS FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/23-08 12 0 0 55 30 SW 8 8 4 1 WSW 38 5457 SW 17109627 V 06/23-09 25 0 0 62 23 SSW 9 9 4 1 WSW 37 7962 SW 24163523 E 06/23-10 25 0 0 67 19 SW 12 12 4 1 WSW 37 9382 SW 24198040 E 06/23-11 25 0 0 70 18 SW 13 13 3 1 WSW 37 10802 WSW 24232557 E 06/23-12 52 22 4 71 18 SW 14 22 3 2 WSW 36 12221 WSW 25267074 E 06/23-13 52 22 4 72 18 SW 15 24 3 2 WSW 37 12688 WSW 25274916 E 06/23-14 52 22 4 73 17 SW 15 24 4 2 WSW 37 13154 SW 25282758 E 06/23-15 52 36 14 73 18 SW 14 22 4 3 WSW 37 13621 SW 24290601 E 06/23-16 52 36 14 73 19 SW 13 13 4 3 WSW 37 13134 SW 23269580 E 06/23-17 52 36 14 72 20 SW 10 10 3 3 WSW 36 12648 WSW 23248560 E 06/23-18 32 10 2 70 22 SSW 9 9 3 2 WSW 36 12162 WSW 22227539 E 06/23-19 32 10 2 67 26 SSW 8 8 3 2 SW 37 9840 SW 21182490 E 06/23-20 32 10 2 63 30 SSW 8 8 4 2 SW 38 7518 SW 21137440 V 06/23-21 30 10 2 59 34 SSW 8 8 4 2 SW 40 5196 SW 21 92391 G 06/23-22 30 10 2 57 37 SSW 7 7 4 2 SW 38 3851 SW 16 64648 G 06/23-23 30 10 2 55 40 SSW 7 7 4 2 SW 36 2506 SSW 13 36904 P 06/24-00 11 0 0 54 40 SSW 6 6 4 1 SW 33 1161 S 9 9161 P 06/24-01 11 0 0 53 39 SW 5 5 4 1 SW 32 927 SSW 9 7582 P 06/24-02 11 0 0 52 38 SW 5 5 4 1 SW 32 693 SSW 10 6004 P 06/24-03 9 0 0 50 39 SSW 6 6 4 1 SW 31 459 SW 12 4426 P 06/24-04 9 0 0 47 43 SSW 5 5 4 1 SW 32 503 SW 10 4664 P 06/24-05 9 0 0 44 49 SSW 3 3 4 1 SW 33 548 SW 10 4903 P 06/24-06 12 0 0 45 47 SSW 3 3 4 1 SW 35 593 SW 10 5141 P 06/24-07 12 0 0 51 36 SSW 5 5 4 1 SW 35 3161 SW 15 62014 G 06/24-08 12 0 0 58 27 SW 7 7 4 1 SW 35 5729 SW 20118886 V 06/24-09 12 0 0 65 20 SW 9 15 4 1 SW 33 8297 WSW 24175758 E 06/24-10 12 0 0 69 17 SW 12 20 4 1 SW 30 10209 WSW 23202020 E 06/24-11 12 0 0 71 15 WSW 15 24 3 1 WSW 26 12120 WSW 22228282 E 06/24-12 37 3 1 72 14 WSW 17 28 3 1 WSW 23 14032 WSW 21254543 E 06/24-13 37 3 1 73 13 WSW 18 30 3 1 WSW 23 13679 WSW 22256817 E 06/24-14 37 3 1 74 12 WSW 20 31 3 1 SW 24 13325 WSW 22259091 E 06/24-15 37 3 1 74 12 WSW 20 31 3 1 SW 24 12971 WSW 23261365 E 06/24-16 37 3 1 73 13 WSW 20 31 3 1 SW 24 11975 WSW 24245185 E 06/24-17 37 3 1 71 14 WSW 18 30 4 1 WSW 24 10980 WSW 24229006 E 06/24-18 31 0 0 68 16 WSW 17 28 4 1 WSW 24 9984 WSW 24212826 E 06/24-19 31 0 0 65 18 WSW 15 24 4 1 WSW 25 7529 WSW 24158479 E 06/24-20 31 0 0 61 20 WSW 13 20 3 1 WSW 25 5074 WSW 23104132 V 06/24-21 31 0 0 57 23 WSW 10 16 3 1 WSW 26 2619 WSW 22 49785 F 06/24-22 31 0 0 55 25 WSW 9 15 3 1 WSW 29 2043 WSW 20 37468 P 06/24-23 31 0 0 53 28 WSW 9 15 2 1 WSW 31 1466 WSW 18 25152 P 06/25-00 26 0 0 52 29 WSW 9 15 2 1 WSW 32 890 WSW 16 12835 P 06/25-01 26 0 0 51 31 WSW 10 16 2 1 WSW 37 875 WSW 18 13766 P 06/25-02 26 0 0 50 33 W 12 17 2 1 WSW 41 860 W 20 14696 P 06/25-03 26 0 0 49 34 W 12 18 2 1 WSW 45 845 W 21 15627 P 06/25-04 26 0 0 47 37 W 10 16 2 1 W 47 761 W 20 12964 P 06/25-05 26 0 0 46 39 W 8 13 2 1 W 48 677 W 17 10301 P 06/25-06 40 0 0 47 39 W 7 7 2 1 W 49 593 W 15 7638 P 06/25-07 40 0 0 51 34 W 8 8 2 1 W 51 2404 W 20 54000 F 06/25-08 40 0 0 56 28 WSW 9 15 2 1 W 52 4215 W 24100362 V 06/25-09 40 0 0 62 23 WSW 12 18 2 1 W 52 6025 W 28146724 V 06/25-10 40 0 0 65 21 WSW 14 22 2 1 W 51 6785 W 26154156 E 06/25-11 40 0 0 67 20 WSW 16 25 2 1 W 49 7545 W 25161588 E 06/25-12 37 0 0 69 19 WSW 17 28 2 1 W 48 8305 W 23169021 E 06/25-13 37 0 0 70 19 WSW 17 29 2 1 W 46 8633 W 23168250 E 06/25-14 37 0 0 71 18 WSW 17 29 2 1 W 45 8961 W 22167479 E 06/25-15 37 0 0 71 18 WSW 17 28 2 1 W 43 9288 W 21166708 E 06/25-16 37 0 0 70 20 WSW 17 28 2 1 W 41 9197 W 21161848 E 06/25-17 37 0 0 68 22 WSW 17 28 2 1 W 40 9105 W 20156987 E 06/25-18 23 3 1 65 25 WSW 16 25 2 1 W 39 9014 W 20152127 E 06/25-19 23 3 1 63 27 WSW 14 23 2 1 W 37 7325 W 18120296 V 06/25-20 23 3 1 60 30 WSW 12 18 2 1 W 36 5636 WSW 17 88465 G 06/25-21 23 3 1 58 33 WSW 9 15 2 1 WNW 35 3947 WSW 16 56634 F 06/25-22 23 3 1 56 36 WSW 8 8 2 1 WNW 32 2871 WSW 15 40199 F 06/25-23 23 3 1 55 38 WSW 7 7 2 1 WNW 31 1796 WSW 14 23764 P 06/26-00 23 4 1 54 40 WSW 6 6 2 1 WNW 29 721 WSW 12 7329 P 06/26-01 23 4 1 53 41 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 26 725 WSW 12 7277 P 06/26-02 23 4 1 52 43 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 24 729 WSW 12 7225 P 06/26-03 23 4 1 51 44 WSW 6 6 2 1 W 23 734 WSW 12 7172 P 06/26-04 23 4 1 49 48 WSW 5 5 2 1 W 22 556 WSW 10 5207 P 06/26-05 23 4 1 48 50 WSW 3 3 2 1 W 22 378 WSW 9 3242 P 06/26-06 22 3 1 49 48 WSW 2 2 2 1 W 22 200 WSW 7 1277 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER REQUESTED BY...SAM DEARSTYNE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130623.BIGME.01/BOU