FNUS75 KBOU 271600 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELEPHANT BUTTE FIRE...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 1000 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0916 MDT ON JUNE 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER COLORADO TODAY. THIS MEANS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL UNDER SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR THE STRONG JUNE SUN TO PRODUCE SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS-TYPE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THESE CLOUDS MAY FALL SOME VIRGA RESULTING IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD CONTINUED DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-87. MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-7 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN SOUTHEAST 7-11 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6900-7900 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 10400-11400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) TO 2000..THEN CLEARING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MAX HUMIDITY........59%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10700 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 7500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 4300 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 2400...THEN 2100-2900 FT AGL UNTIL 0500...THEN 1300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85. MIN HUMIDITY........19%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10400-11400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELEPHANT BUTTE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/27-09 3 1 0 77 24 NE 7 7 3 1 NW 16 6019 NNW 6 33011 P 06/27-10 3 1 0 82 20 NE 7 7 3 1 NW 15 7279 NNW 6 37496 P 06/27-11 11 1 0 84 18 ENE 8 8 3 1 WNW 14 8539 NW 6 41982 F 06/27-12 11 4 1 86 16 ENE 9 9 3 1 WNW 13 9800 NW 6 46468 F 06/27-13 39 4 1 87 16 ENE 9 9 3 1 WNW 14 10453 NW 5 43725 F 06/27-14 39 4 1 87 16 ENE 8 8 3 1 W 16 11107 NW 5 40983 F 06/27-15 39 6 1 87 16 ENE 8 8 3 1 W 17 11761 NW 3 38240 P 06/27-16 50 6 1 86 16 ENE 8 8 3 1 W 16 11422 NW 3 30746 P 06/27-17 50 6 1 85 16 ENE 8 8 3 1 W 15 11082 NNW 2 23252 P 06/27-18 50 6 1 82 18 NE 7 7 3 1 W 14 10743 CALM 15757 P 06/27-19 50 6 1 78 21 NE 5 5 3 1 W 13 7510 N 2 11391 P 06/27-20 36 6 1 74 25 ENE 2 2 4 1 W 12 4277 ENE 2 7024 P 06/27-21 36 1 0 69 31 CALM 1 4 1 W 10 1044 E 3 2658 P 06/27-22 36 1 0 66 35 NNE 2 2 4 1 W 12 1650 E 3 5101 P 06/27-23 36 1 0 64 38 NW 3 3 3 1 W 12 2256 ESE 3 7545 P 06/28-00 29 1 0 62 41 WNW 6 6 3 1 WSW 13 2861 ESE 3 9988 P 06/28-01 29 1 0 61 41 WNW 7 7 3 1 WSW 13 2846 SE 5 10120 P 06/28-02 29 1 0 60 42 NW 7 7 3 1 W 14 2830 SSE 5 10252 P 06/28-03 14 1 0 58 47 NW 7 7 3 1 W 14 2815 SSE 5 10384 P 06/28-04 14 1 0 55 53 NW 7 7 3 1 W 15 2079 S 5 8040 P 06/28-05 14 1 0 53 59 W 6 6 3 1 WNW 15 1342 SSW 6 5697 P 06/28-06 27 2 0 54 57 W 6 6 3 1 NW 16 606 SW 7 3353 P 06/28-07 27 2 0 60 46 W 5 5 3 1 NW 15 1897 SW 7 11741 P 06/28-08 27 2 0 69 33 WNW 3 3 3 1 NW 15 3189 SW 7 20130 P 06/28-09 28 2 0 77 26 WNW 3 3 3 1 NW 14 4480 SW 7 28518 P 06/28-10 28 2 0 81 22 NNW 3 3 3 1 NW 14 6787 WSW 7 34029 P 06/28-11 28 2 0 83 20 NNE 5 5 3 1 WNW 14 9094 W 6 39540 P 06/28-12 52 2 0 84 20 ENE 6 6 3 1 WNW 14 11401 WNW 5 45051 F 06/28-13 52 20 4 85 19 ENE 6 6 3 3 WNW 14 11074 WNW 3 38931 P 06/28-14 52 20 4 85 20 ENE 7 7 3 3 WNW 15 10746 NW 3 32811 P 06/28-15 52 20 4 84 21 ENE 7 7 3 3 WNW 15 10418 NNW 3 26691 P 06/28-16 52 20 4 83 22 ENE 7 7 3 3 NW 15 10548 N 3 29939 P 06/28-17 52 20 4 81 25 ENE 7 7 3 3 NW 14 10678 NNE 3 33188 P 06/28-18 54 20 4 79 27 ENE 7 7 3 3 NW 14 10808 NNE 3 36436 P 06/28-19 54 20 4 75 31 ENE 6 6 3 3 NW 13 7437 NE 5 25627 P 06/28-20 54 18 4 72 35 NE 5 5 3 3 NNW 12 4066 ENE 6 14819 P 06/28-21 54 18 4 68 40 NE 3 3 3 3 NNW 12 696 ENE 7 4010 P 06/28-22 54 18 4 65 45 N 2 2 3 3 NNW 13 1317 ENE 6 6524 P 06/28-23 54 18 4 62 50 CALM 1 3 3 NNW 14 1938 ENE 6 9037 P 06/29-00 33 5 1 60 53 CALM 1 3 1 NNW 16 2559 NE 6 11551 P 06/29-01 33 5 1 58 58 CALM 1 3 1 NNW 15 1892 NNE 5 8299 P 06/29-02 33 5 1 57 61 W 2 2 3 1 NNW 15 1224 NW 5 5047 P 06/29-03 33 5 1 55 66 W 3 3 3 1 NNW 14 557 W 3 1795 P 06/29-04 33 5 1 53 72 W 3 3 3 1 NNW 14 541 WNW 3 1568 P 06/29-05 33 5 1 52 74 W 3 3 4 1 NNW 13 525 NW 3 1340 P 06/29-06 33 7 1 54 69 W 3 3 4 1 NW 13 509 NW 2 1113 P 06/29-07 33 7 1 60 55 NW 5 5 4 1 NW 13 1436 NNW 3 5279 P 06/29-08 33 7 1 68 41 N 6 6 3 1 NW 14 2364 N 3 9446 P 06/29-09 33 7 1 75 32 NE 7 7 3 1 NW 14 3291 NNE 5 13612 P 06/29-10 33 7 1 79 27 NE 7 7 3 1 NW 16 4548 N 5 16354 P 06/29-11 33 7 1 80 26 NE 7 7 3 1 NW 18 5806 N 3 19095 P 06/29-12 48 7 1 81 25 NE 7 7 3 1 NW 20 7063 N 3 21837 P 06/29-13 48 20 4 81 26 ENE 7 7 3 3 NW 20 7064 N 3 21663 P 06/29-14 48 20 4 81 26 ENE 7 7 3 3 NW 20 7065 NNE 3 21488 P 06/29-15 48 20 4 81 27 E 7 7 3 3 NW 20 7067 NNE 3 21314 P 06/29-16 48 20 4 80 28 E 6 6 3 3 NW 18 6564 NE 2 16898 P 06/29-17 48 20 4 78 31 E 6 6 3 3 NW 17 6061 E 2 12483 P 06/29-18 54 13 3 76 33 E 5 5 3 2 NW 17 5559 CALM 8067 P 06/29-19 54 13 3 73 37 ESE 5 5 3 2 NW 17 4478 ESE 3 8986 P 06/29-20 54 13 3 69 43 SSE 5 5 3 2 NW 17 3397 SSE 5 9905 P 06/29-21 54 13 3 66 48 S 5 5 3 2 WNW 17 2316 SSE 6 10824 P 06/29-22 54 13 3 63 54 S 5 5 3 2 NW 17 1685 SSE 6 7930 P 06/29-23 54 10 2 61 58 SSW 5 5 3 2 NW 18 1053 SSE 6 5037 P 06/30-00 34 10 2 59 62 SW 5 5 3 2 NW 20 421 SSE 6 2143 P 06/30-01 34 10 2 58 64 SW 5 5 3 2 NW 20 912 SSE 7 5589 P 06/30-02 34 10 2 57 66 WSW 5 5 3 2 NW 18 1404 S 7 9034 P 06/30-03 34 10 2 56 68 W 5 5 3 2 NW 18 1895 S 8 12480 P 06/30-04 34 10 2 54 73 W 3 3 3 2 NW 24 1444 S 8 9588 P 06/30-05 34 10 2 53 75 W 3 3 3 2 NNW 29 994 SW 8 6696 P 06/30-06 33 15 3 54 72 W 2 2 3 3 NNW 33 543 SW 8 3804 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130627.ELEPH.02/BOU