FNUS75 KBOU 291246 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG MEADOWS FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 645 AM MDT SAT JUN 29 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0610 MDT ON JUNE 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AN THE GREAT BASIN. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND WILL PRODUCE WETTING RAIN. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE NICKEL SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN 30 MINUTES...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD START TO STABILIZE AFTER 2200 THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 2700-3700 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 6000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 8600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 11200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 11800-12800 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 8700-9700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH UP TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100 THEN 2 FROM 1100-1400...THEN 4. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........85-90%. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0300. MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0500. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2 FROM 1200-0300...THEN 1. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1100-1400 ...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 7700-8700 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 FROM 1100-1400...THEN 4. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG MEADOWS FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/29-06 27 7 1 45 79 CALM 1 4 1 NW 23 242 CALM 332 P 06/29-07 27 7 1 50 66 CALM 1 4 1 NW 26 2167 NNW 5 18732 P 06/29-08 27 7 1 57 51 N 2 2 3 1 NW 30 4092 NNW 8 37133 P 06/29-09 30 15 3 64 40 N 3 3 3 3 NW 31 6017 NNW 10 55534 F 06/29-10 30 15 3 69 34 N 3 3 3 3 NW 30 8608 NNW 10 73243 G 06/29-11 30 15 3 71 32 N 5 5 4 3 NW 26 11199 NNW 9 90952 G 06/29-12 73 40 18 73 30 NNE 5 5 4 4 NW 24 13790 NNW 9108661 V 06/29-13 73 40 18 73 31 NE 5 5 4 4 NW 23 12881 NNW 8 90456 G 06/29-14 73 40 18 73 31 ENE 5 5 4 4 NW 23 11973 N 7 72251 G 06/29-15 73 40 18 72 32 ENE 5 5 4 4 NW 23 11065 N 6 54047 F 06/29-16 73 40 18 70 34 E 6 6 4 4 NW 23 9820 N 5 45065 F 06/29-17 73 40 18 68 37 E 8 13 3 4 NW 23 8575 NE 5 36084 P 06/29-18 62 33 12 66 40 E 9 15 3 4 NW 24 7330 ENE 5 27102 P 06/29-19 62 33 12 62 46 E 8 14 3 4 NW 24 5449 E 6 21866 P 06/29-20 62 33 12 59 52 E 7 7 3 4 NNW 25 3568 E 7 16630 P 06/29-21 62 33 12 55 61 E 6 6 3 4 NNW 26 1686 ESE 8 11394 P 06/29-22 62 33 12 52 68 E 6 6 3 4 NNW 26 1834 ESE 8 13033 P 06/29-23 62 33 12 49 77 E 5 5 3 4 NNW 25 1981 E 8 14671 P 06/30-00 45 10 2 48 80 E 5 5 3 2 NNW 24 2129 E 9 16310 P 06/30-01 45 10 2 47 81 E 3 3 3 2 NNW 24 1840 ESE 7 12537 P 06/30-02 45 10 2 46 83 E 3 3 3 2 NNW 25 1551 SE 6 8764 P 06/30-03 45 7 1 45 84 ESE 2 2 3 1 NNW 25 1262 SE 5 4991 P 06/30-04 45 7 1 44 86 CALM 1 3 1 NNW 24 984 S 3 3454 P 06/30-05 45 7 1 43 89 CALM 1 3 1 NNW 24 706 WSW 2 1917 P 06/30-06 33 7 1 43 89 CALM 1 3 1 NNW 24 428 CALM 380 P 06/30-07 33 7 1 48 75 CALM 1 3 1 NNW 23 2164 NW 3 14955 P 06/30-08 33 7 1 54 62 W 2 2 3 1 NNW 23 3899 NNW 7 29530 P 06/30-09 33 7 1 60 51 NW 3 3 3 1 NNW 23 5635 N 9 44105 F 06/30-10 33 7 1 65 44 NNW 3 3 3 1 NNW 26 6819 N 10 66247 G 06/30-11 33 7 1 67 41 N 3 3 3 1 NNW 29 8002 N 13 88389 G 06/30-12 33 35 13 68 40 N 3 3 3 4 NNW 31 9186 N 14110532 V 06/30-13 33 35 13 68 40 NNE 5 5 3 4 N 28 9037 N 12 91042 G 06/30-14 76 35 13 68 40 NE 5 5 3 4 N 25 8888 N 9 71553 G 06/30-15 76 35 13 67 42 NE 6 6 3 4 N 23 8739 NNE 7 52064 F 06/30-16 76 35 13 67 42 NE 6 6 3 4 N 25 8028 NNE 7 44840 F 06/30-17 76 35 13 66 43 ENE 6 6 3 4 NNE 26 7317 NNE 6 37616 P 06/30-18 76 35 13 64 46 ENE 6 6 3 4 NNE 29 6606 NE 6 30392 P 06/30-19 63 35 13 61 52 ENE 6 6 3 4 NNE 28 5115 NE 6 24339 P 06/30-20 63 35 13 57 60 E 6 6 3 4 N 28 3623 ENE 6 18286 P 06/30-21 63 35 13 53 69 E 5 5 3 4 N 26 2132 E 7 12232 P 06/30-22 63 35 13 50 75 E 3 3 3 4 N 26 1579 E 5 8338 P 06/30-23 63 35 13 48 79 E 2 2 3 4 N 26 1027 E 3 4444 P 07/01-00 58 10 2 47 80 CALM 1 3 2 N 26 474 CALM 550 P 07/01-01 58 10 2 47 78 CALM 1 3 2 N 26 444 NE 2 867 P 07/01-02 58 10 2 46 78 N 2 2 3 2 N 28 414 NNW 3 1184 P 07/01-03 58 10 2 45 79 NNW 2 2 3 2 N 28 384 NW 5 1501 P 07/01-04 49 10 2 44 80 NNW 2 2 3 2 N 29 370 NW 5 1593 P 07/01-05 49 10 2 43 80 N 2 2 3 2 N 29 356 NNW 6 1686 P 07/01-06 49 10 2 44 76 N 2 2 3 2 N 30 343 N 6 1778 P 07/01-07 49 10 2 48 67 N 3 3 3 2 N 31 2697 N 9 36700 P 07/01-08 49 10 2 54 55 N 5 5 3 2 N 32 5051 N 13 71622 G 07/01-09 49 10 2 59 47 N 6 6 3 2 N 33 7406 N 16106544 V 07/01-10 49 10 2 63 41 NNE 6 6 3 2 N 32 8810 N 15112741 V 07/01-11 49 10 2 65 37 NE 7 7 3 2 N 31 10214 N 14118939 V 07/01-12 55 30 9 66 36 NE 7 7 3 4 NNW 29 11618 N 13125137 V 07/01-13 55 30 9 67 35 NE 8 8 3 4 NNW 30 10205 N 10 97810 G 07/01-14 55 30 9 67 35 NE 8 8 3 4 NNW 30 8791 N 8 70484 G 07/01-15 55 30 9 67 36 NE 9 14 3 4 NNW 30 7377 N 7 43157 F 07/01-16 55 30 9 66 38 NE 9 15 3 4 NNW 36 7056 NNE 7 40372 F 07/01-17 55 30 9 65 39 ENE 9 15 2 4 N 40 6735 NNE 7 37587 P 07/01-18 57 25 5 63 43 ENE 9 14 2 4 N 45 6414 NE 6 34802 P 07/01-19 57 25 5 60 48 ENE 8 8 2 4 N 45 5227 ENE 6 28260 P 07/01-20 57 25 5 56 55 ENE 6 6 2 4 N 46 4041 ESE 6 21719 P 07/01-21 57 25 5 53 61 ENE 5 5 2 4 N 46 2854 SE 6 15178 P 07/01-22 57 25 5 51 66 ENE 3 3 2 4 N 45 2229 SE 5 10553 P 07/01-23 57 25 5 50 69 ENE 2 2 3 4 N 44 1604 SE 3 5928 P 07/02-00 39 8 2 49 71 CALM 1 3 1 N 43 979 CALM 1303 P 07/02-01 39 8 2 49 71 CALM 1 3 1 N 44 740 E 2 1201 P 07/02-02 39 8 2 48 73 CALM 1 2 1 N 44 500 NNE 3 1099 P 07/02-03 39 8 2 47 74 N 2 2 2 1 N 44 261 N 5 997 P 07/02-04 39 8 2 46 76 N 2 2 2 1 N 45 316 N 6 1522 P 07/02-05 39 8 2 45 78 NNW 3 3 2 1 N 46 371 N 6 2046 P 07/02-06 38 11 2 46 73 NW 5 5 2 2 N 46 426 N 7 2570 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...COOPER REQUESTED BY...MATT DUTTON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130629.BIGME.01/BOU