FNUS75 KGJT 301725
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DOVE CREEK FIRE...SAN JUAN BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1125 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1036 MDT ON JUNE 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS WORKED UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR WEST FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE STILL REMAINS ON THE LIMITED
SIDE...AND MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING
OVER THE BURN SITE. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR TONIGHT. ON MONDAY
SOME SOME DRYING WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH LESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%)...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    (60-70%) AFTER 1600. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
                    INCREASING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1500. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DRY...WITH
                    LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....92-96 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 1-5 MPH...INCREASING TO 4-8 MPH AFTER 1300.
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. AFTER 1600...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
                    MAY DOMINATE SURFACE AND 20-FOOT WINDS WITH
                    VARIABLE DIRECTION AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH...WITH
                    ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. AT ANY TIME...
                    NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC
                    AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................6.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 15500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........38-43%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....91-96 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE (0-3 MPH)...BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH AFTER 1300. AFTER 1700
                    EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE
                    SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MAY REACH THE BURN SITE...
                    WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    13600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTH 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT MCCREARY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130630.DOVEC.02/GJT