FNUS75 KRIW 011044
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SCHIDLER FIRE...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
444 AM MDT MON JUL 1 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2324 MDT ON JUNE 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXTREMELY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UPSLOPE DRIVEN TODAY...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS AT THE FIRE SITE SINCE THE FIRE IS AT
RIDGE TOP. PREVAILING WINDS ALOFT ARE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD MIX
DOWN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT RIDGE TOP.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). VERY ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE 4-8 MPH OR NORTHERLY 4-8 MPH.
                    UPSLOPE 4-8 MPH ON SLOPES. GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....VARIABLE 4-8 MPH OR NORTHERLY 4-8 MPH. GUSTS
                    TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 2 PM...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 5-10
                    MPH BY AROUND NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). VERY ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50.
MAX HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNSLOPE 4-8 MPH ON SLOPES.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST TO
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL BY 9 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST TO
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING POOR BY 9 PM.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) WITH VERY ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE 5-9 MPH. GUSTS TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 4-8 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
                    10 AM...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH BETWEEN
                    1 PM AND 3 PM. GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 2 PM...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    10-15 BY AROUND NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (32500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (118000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...TIDC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130630.SCHID.01/RIW