FNUS75 KBOU 011301 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG MEADOWS FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 701 AM MDT MON JUL 1 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0616 MDT ON JULY 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH CUMULUS BUILDING BY NOON AND THUNDERSTORM GENERATION LIKELY BEGINNING AFTER 1400. SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE AIR TODAY BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR...WITH A STRONGER STORM ABLE TO PRODUCE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE PLAINS. LOOKING INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY CONVECTION WITH LESS COVERAGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY THEN HOLD STEADY WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO START RETURNING EAST TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63-65. MIN HUMIDITY........32-35%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 3300-4300 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 8000-9000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 9200-10200 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 6400-7400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45. MAX HUMIDITY........87-90%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100 THEN 1. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62-64. MIN HUMIDITY........29-31%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 6600-7600 FT AGL AFTER 0900. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN LIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG MEADOWS FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/01-06 43 10 2 48 82 NNE 2 2 3 1 N 32 343 N 6 1716 P 07/01-07 43 10 2 48 70 NE 3 3 3 1 N 31 2608 N 9 36184 P 07/01-08 43 10 2 50 56 NE 6 6 2 1 N 31 4874 N 13 70651 G 07/01-09 43 10 2 57 45 N 7 7 2 2 N 31 7140 N 17105118 V 07/01-10 43 10 2 61 38 NNE 7 7 2 2 N 31 8369 N 16115927 V 07/01-11 43 10 2 63 34 NNE 7 7 3 2 NNW 31 9598 N 15126735 V 07/01-12 79 37 15 65 32 NE 7 7 3 4 NNW 32 10826 N 15137544 V 07/01-13 79 37 15 65 33 NE 7 7 3 4 NNW 32 9730 N 12102709 V 07/01-14 79 37 15 64 35 ENE 7 7 3 4 NNW 33 8633 NNE 8 67874 G 07/01-15 79 37 15 63 37 E 7 7 3 4 NNW 35 7536 NNE 5 33039 P 07/01-16 79 37 15 62 39 E 7 7 3 4 NNW 36 6921 NE 6 31210 P 07/01-17 79 37 15 62 41 E 7 7 3 4 NNW 37 6306 ENE 6 29381 P 07/01-18 63 27 7 61 44 ENE 7 7 3 4 NNW 39 5690 E 6 27552 P 07/01-19 63 27 7 60 50 E 7 7 3 4 N 44 4670 E 6 22989 P 07/01-20 63 27 7 57 55 E 7 7 2 4 N 47 3650 ESE 6 18427 P 07/01-21 63 10 2 53 63 E 6 6 2 2 N 51 2629 ESE 6 13865 P 07/01-22 63 10 2 51 68 E 5 5 2 2 N 52 2099 ESE 5 9533 P 07/01-23 63 10 2 49 72 E 3 3 2 2 N 53 1568 ESE 2 5201 P 07/02-00 39 9 2 48 74 ENE 2 2 2 1 N 53 1038 CALM 869 P 07/02-01 39 9 2 47 76 ENE 2 2 2 1 N 52 799 E 2 948 P 07/02-02 39 9 2 46 78 NNE 2 2 2 1 N 49 559 NE 3 1027 P 07/02-03 39 9 2 45 80 N 2 2 2 1 N 48 320 N 3 1106 P 07/02-04 39 9 2 43 85 N 2 2 2 1 N 46 372 N 3 1299 P 07/02-05 39 9 2 42 87 NNW 3 3 2 1 N 45 425 N 5 1492 P 07/02-06 43 8 2 44 79 NNW 3 3 2 1 N 44 477 NNE 5 1684 P 07/02-07 43 8 2 48 67 NNW 5 5 2 1 N 44 2331 N 7 20953 P 07/02-08 43 8 2 54 52 NNW 5 5 2 1 N 44 4184 N 9 40221 F 07/02-09 43 8 2 59 42 NNW 6 6 2 1 N 44 6038 N 12 59490 F 07/02-10 43 8 2 63 36 N 6 6 2 1 N 41 6667 N 10 56398 F 07/02-11 43 8 2 66 32 NNE 6 6 3 1 N 40 7296 N 9 53306 F 07/02-12 56 16 3 67 31 NE 6 6 3 3 N 38 7926 N 7 50214 F 07/02-13 56 16 3 68 29 NE 7 7 3 3 N 38 7674 N 6 41117 F 07/02-14 56 16 3 68 29 NNE 8 8 3 3 N 37 7422 N 5 32020 P 07/02-15 56 16 3 67 31 NNE 9 14 3 3 N 36 7169 N 3 22923 P 07/02-16 56 16 3 66 32 NNE 9 9 3 3 N 36 6854 NNE 3 21814 P 07/02-17 56 16 3 65 34 NE 8 8 3 3 N 36 6539 NE 3 20704 P 07/02-18 59 10 2 64 35 NE 7 7 3 2 N 36 6224 NE 3 19595 P 07/02-19 59 10 2 60 41 NE 6 6 3 2 N 36 5110 ENE 3 16157 P 07/02-20 59 10 2 56 47 NE 5 5 3 2 N 35 3996 E 3 12719 P 07/02-21 59 10 2 52 54 NNE 3 3 3 2 N 35 2881 ESE 3 9281 P 07/02-22 59 10 2 49 61 NNE 2 2 3 2 N 35 2075 SE 2 6253 P 07/02-23 59 10 2 48 63 CALM 1 3 2 N 35 1269 CALM 3225 P 07/03-00 27 4 1 47 65 CALM 1 3 1 N 33 463 CALM 197 P 07/03-01 27 4 1 46 68 CALM 1 3 1 N 33 448 SSW 2 729 P 07/03-02 27 4 1 46 68 CALM 1 2 1 N 33 432 W 3 1262 P 07/03-03 27 4 1 45 71 N 2 2 2 1 N 33 416 NW 5 1794 P 07/03-04 27 4 1 43 75 N 3 3 2 1 N 33 395 NNW 6 1972 P 07/03-05 27 4 1 42 77 NNW 3 3 2 1 N 33 373 NNW 7 2151 P 07/03-06 27 4 1 43 73 NW 5 5 2 1 N 33 351 N 8 2329 P 07/03-07 30 4 1 48 60 NNW 5 5 2 1 N 33 2086 N 9 23805 P 07/03-08 30 6 1 54 47 NNW 6 6 2 1 N 35 3821 N 12 45281 F 07/03-09 30 6 1 60 38 N 6 6 2 1 N 35 5556 N 14 66757 G 07/03-10 30 6 1 64 33 N 6 6 2 1 N 33 7461 N 14 86411 G 07/03-11 30 6 1 67 29 N 7 7 3 1 N 33 9365 N 13106065 V 07/03-12 53 10 2 69 27 NNE 7 7 3 2 N 32 11270 N 13125720 V 07/03-13 53 10 2 70 26 NNE 7 7 3 2 N 29 11387 N 13120779 V 07/03-14 53 10 2 71 25 NNE 8 8 4 2 N 25 11505 N 12115838 V 07/03-15 53 10 2 71 25 NNE 8 8 4 2 N 22 11622 N 12110898 V 07/03-16 53 10 2 70 25 NE 8 8 4 2 NNW 22 11066 N 9 93571 G 07/03-17 53 10 2 68 27 NE 8 8 3 2 NNW 22 10510 N 8 76243 G 07/03-18 53 8 2 65 30 NE 8 8 3 1 NNW 23 9953 NNE 7 58916 F 07/03-19 42 8 2 62 34 NE 7 7 1 07/03-20 42 8 2 58 40 NE 6 6 1 07/03-21 42 8 2 56 43 ENE 5 5 1 07/03-22 42 8 2 53 49 ENE 3 3 1 07/03-23 42 8 2 52 50 ENE 2 2 1 07/04-00 25 4 1 51 52 CALM 1 1 07/04-01 25 4 1 50 54 CALM 1 1 07/04-02 25 4 1 50 54 NNE 2 2 1 07/04-03 25 4 1 48 57 N 2 2 1 07/04-04 25 4 1 46 61 NNW 3 3 1 07/04-05 25 4 1 45 63 NW 5 5 1 07/04-06 26 4 1 46 60 NW 6 6 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN REQUESTED BY...MATT DUTTON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130701.BIGME.01/BOU