FNUS75 KBOU 011948 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR WILLOW BEND...PUEBLO DISPATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 140 PM MDT MON JUL 1 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1256 MDT ON JULY 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. AFTER 3 PM...STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AROUND THE WILDFIRE. THEIR FORWARD SPEEDS MAY SLOW DOWN...THEREBY INCREASING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THREE-QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WITH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO GRADUALLY RISE RESULTING IN HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN AT THE WILDFIRE IS 40 TO 50 PERCENT BETWEEN 1400 AND 2030 MDT THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WE COULD SEE A REPEAT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE OVER THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD ALSO BE ABOUT THE SAME ON TUESDAY. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........36%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8-10 MPH...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 7-12 MPH AFTER 1500. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......8500-9300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................40 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45%) AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. THEN CLEARING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MAX HUMIDITY........86-92%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 1200 TO 1400... THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHEAST 8-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 8500-9500 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................30 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WILLOW BEND. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/01-13 63 20 8 74 38 NE 12 17 3 2 NNW 29 9201 N 17137928 V 07/01-14 63 20 8 75 37 NE 10 17 3 2 NNW 26 9237 NNE 15120819 V 07/01-15 63 29 8 75 36 NE 10 16 3 2 NNW 25 9273 NNE 13103710 V 07/01-16 63 29 8 74 37 NE 10 16 3 2 NNW 24 8871 NNE 13 94630 G 07/01-17 63 29 8 72 40 NE 9 15 3 2 NNW 24 8470 NNE 12 85549 G 07/01-18 56 29 8 70 42 ENE 8 13 3 3 NNW 24 8068 NNE 10 76468 G 07/01-19 56 29 8 66 48 ENE 7 7 3 3 NNW 24 5971 NE 9 54421 F 07/01-20 56 29 8 63 54 E 6 6 2 3 NNW 24 3874 ENE 8 32374 P 07/01-21 56 10 2 60 60 ESE 5 5 2 2 NNW 25 1777 ENE 7 10327 P 07/01-22 56 10 2 59 62 SE 5 5 2 2 N 28 1334 NNE 6 7418 P 07/01-23 56 10 2 57 67 S 3 3 2 2 N 30 892 WNW 5 4509 P 07/02-00 35 7 1 56 69 SW 3 3 2 1 N 32 449 W 5 1600 P 07/02-01 35 7 1 55 71 SW 3 3 2 1 N 33 495 W 3 1706 P 07/02-02 35 7 1 53 76 SW 2 2 2 1 N 33 540 W 3 1811 P 07/02-03 35 7 1 51 80 WSW 2 2 2 1 N 33 586 WNW 3 1917 P 07/02-04 35 7 1 48 88 WSW 2 2 2 1 N 35 560 WNW 3 1692 P 07/02-05 35 7 1 47 91 WSW 2 2 2 1 N 36 534 NW 3 1466 P 07/02-06 27 4 1 49 83 WSW 3 3 2 1 N 37 508 NNW 2 1241 P 07/02-07 27 4 1 53 71 W 5 5 2 1 N 37 2132 NNW 6 17060 P 07/02-08 27 4 1 60 54 WNW 6 6 2 1 N 36 3755 N 8 32880 P 07/02-09 27 4 1 66 43 NW 8 13 2 1 N 35 5379 N 10 48699 F 07/02-10 27 4 1 71 36 NNW 9 14 2 1 N 35 6493 N 12 68074 G 07/02-11 27 4 1 74 32 NNE 10 16 2 1 N 33 7607 N 13 87448 G 07/02-12 49 10 2 75 31 NE 12 17 2 2 N 32 8721 N 14106823 V 07/02-13 49 10 2 76 30 NE 12 17 2 2 N 32 9012 N 14110387 V 07/02-14 49 10 2 76 30 NE 12 16 3 2 N 32 9303 N 14113951 V 07/02-15 49 10 2 75 31 NE 10 16 3 2 NNW 32 9594 N 14117515 V 07/02-16 49 10 2 74 32 NE 9 15 3 2 NNW 30 8962 N 13103424 V 07/02-17 49 10 2 72 34 NE 9 9 3 2 N 29 8330 NNE 13 89332 G 07/02-18 49 14 2 69 38 NE 8 8 3 1 N 28 7698 NNE 12 75240 G 07/02-19 49 14 2 67 40 ENE 7 7 3 1 N 28 5763 NNE 9 53086 F 07/02-20 49 14 2 63 46 ESE 7 7 3 1 N 29 3828 NE 7 30933 P 07/02-21 49 8 2 61 50 SE 6 6 3 1 N 30 1893 ENE 6 8779 P 07/02-22 49 8 2 58 55 SSE 5 5 3 1 N 30 1826 NNE 3 6146 P 07/02-23 49 8 2 56 59 S 3 3 2 1 N 29 1759 WNW 2 3513 P 07/03-00 23 2 0 55 61 SSW 2 2 2 1 N 29 1692 CALM 880 P 07/03-01 23 2 0 53 66 SW 2 2 2 1 N 29 1300 W 2 1298 P 07/03-02 23 2 0 51 71 SW 2 2 3 1 N 28 909 WSW 3 1717 P 07/03-03 23 2 0 49 77 SW 2 2 3 1 N 28 517 SW 5 2135 P 07/03-04 23 2 0 46 86 WSW 3 3 3 1 N 29 467 WSW 5 1963 P 07/03-05 23 2 0 44 93 WSW 3 3 3 1 N 29 416 WSW 5 1791 P 07/03-06 23 2 0 46 86 WSW 5 5 3 1 N 30 365 WSW 5 1619 P 07/03-07 23 2 0 52 68 W 5 5 3 1 N 31 2684 W 7 24137 P 07/03-08 23 2 0 60 50 NW 6 6 3 1 N 32 5003 NNW 9 46656 F 07/03-09 23 2 0 68 37 NW 6 6 3 1 N 32 7323 N 10 69174 G 07/03-10 23 2 0 73 31 NNW 6 6 3 1 N 32 7708 N 12 80678 G 07/03-11 23 2 0 75 28 NNE 7 7 3 1 N 31 8093 N 13 92182 G 07/03-12 47 9 2 77 26 NE 7 7 3 1 N 31 8479 N 14103686 V 07/03-13 47 9 2 78 24 NE 7 7 3 1 N 31 9344 N 15121441 V 07/03-14 47 9 2 78 24 NE 7 7 3 1 N 31 10208 N 16139197 V 07/03-15 47 9 2 78 24 NE 7 7 3 1 N 31 11073 N 16156953 E 07/03-16 47 9 2 77 24 NE 7 7 3 1 N 30 10287 N 15132438 V 07/03-17 47 9 2 75 26 NE 7 7 3 1 N 29 9502 NNE 13107923 V 07/03-18 47 6 1 73 28 NE 7 7 3 1 N 28 8716 NNE 12 83408 G 07/03-19 38 6 1 70 31 ENE 6 6 1 07/03-20 38 6 1 66 36 ESE 6 6 1 07/03-21 38 6 1 63 41 SE 5 5 1 07/03-22 38 6 1 61 45 SSE 5 5 1 07/03-23 38 6 1 59 49 S 3 3 1 07/04-00 18 2 0 57 53 SSW 3 3 1 07/04-01 18 2 0 56 55 SSW 3 3 1 07/04-02 18 2 0 54 59 SW 3 3 1 07/04-03 18 2 0 52 64 SW 3 3 1 07/04-04 18 2 0 50 68 WSW 3 3 1 07/04-05 18 2 0 48 72 WSW 5 5 1 07/04-06 19 2 0 50 66 WSW 5 5 1 07/04-07 19 2 0 55 53 W 5 5 1 07/04-08 19 2 0 63 39 WNW 5 5 1 07/04-09 19 3 1 71 29 NNW 6 6 1 07/04-10 19 3 1 76 24 N 6 6 1 07/04-11 19 3 1 79 21 NNE 6 6 1 07/04-12 47 6 1 80 20 NE 6 6 1 07/04-13 47 6 1 81 19 NE 6 6 1 07/04-14 47 6 1 81 19 NE 7 7 1 07/04-15 47 6 1 80 19 NE 7 7 1 07/04-16 47 6 1 80 19 ENE 7 7 1 07/04-17 47 6 1 79 20 ENE 7 7 1 07/04-18 54 5 1 77 22 ENE 7 7 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER REQUESTED BY...DISPATCHER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130701.WILLO.01/BOU