FNUS75 KGJT 011729
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DOVE CREEK FIRE...SAN JUAN BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT MON JUL 1 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1039 MDT ON JULY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE BURN SITE THEREFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TODAY. WITH GOOD HEATING TODAY...THE NORTH
WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT CONVECTION OVER THE SAN JUANS MAY
REACH THE BURN SITE. LOOK FOR A REPEAT ON TUESDAY...WITH A
DOWNTURN IN THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND FEEDBACK WOULD HELP FORECAST
ACCURACY...

.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%)...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%
                    GENERALLY FLAT CUMULUS) AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-95 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY (0-5 MPH)...AFTER 1200
                    BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH...THEN INCREASING TO
                    8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH AFTER 1400.
                    AFTER 1700 EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
                    CONVECTION OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS MAY
                    AT TIMES REACH THE BURN SITE...WITH GUSTS
                    TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 15200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-95 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY (0-5 MPH)...AFTER 1200
                    BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH...THEN INCREASING TO
                    8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH AFTER 1400.
                    FOR BRIEF PERIODS AFTER 1700 EASTERLY OUTFLOW
                    WINDS FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SAN
                    JUAN MOUNTAINS MAY REACH THE BURN SITE...WITH
                    GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...INCREASING TO 15000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 18 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT MCCREARY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130701.DOVEC.01/GJT