FNUS75 KBOU 032244 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR WILLOW BEND...PIDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 444 PM MDT WED JUL 3 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1616 MDT ON JULY 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND LIMIT THE THREAT OF ANY DRY STORMS. HOWEVER...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FAIRLY NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PERSIST WITH SOME UPSLOPE GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED RIDGES. ANY SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER STORM COVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. .THURSDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........20%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. CWR.................5 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 3. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN INCREASING TO 9500-10500 FT AGL BY 1000. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MAX HUMIDITY........61%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. CWR.................5 PERCENT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 5200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 2900 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN 1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 0300...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........20%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. CWR.................5 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10200-11200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WILLOW BEND. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/03-16 47 10 2 79 22 NE 10 17 4 2 N 36 11491 N 20 194612 E 07/03-17 47 10 2 78 23 NE 9 16 4 2 N 32 10619 N 17 161244 E 07/03-18 52 10 2 76 25 NE 8 13 4 2 N 30 9746 N 15 127875 V 07/03-19 52 10 2 74 27 NE 6 6 4 2 N 30 7789 N 13 94605 G 07/03-20 52 9 2 70 32 ENE 3 3 4 1 N 29 5832 N 10 61335 G 07/03-21 52 7 1 64 40 CALM 1 4 1 N 29 3875 N 8 28065 P 07/03-22 52 7 1 59 48 CALM 1 4 1 N 29 3005 NNW 6 19527 P 07/03-23 52 7 1 58 51 SSW 2 2 4 1 N 29 2136 W 5 10988 P 07/04-00 25 0 0 55 57 WSW 3 3 4 1 N 30 1266 WSW 2 2450 P 07/04-01 25 0 0 53 62 WSW 3 3 4 1 N 29 1011 W 3 2344 P 07/04-02 25 0 0 52 64 WSW 5 5 4 1 N 28 756 W 3 2238 P 07/04-03 25 0 0 51 66 WSW 5 5 4 1 N 28 501 W 5 2132 P 07/04-04 25 0 0 50 67 WSW 5 5 4 1 N 29 479 W 6 2252 P 07/04-05 25 0 0 48 72 WSW 6 6 4 1 N 30 457 NW 6 2372 P 07/04-06 25 0 0 46 76 WSW 6 6 4 1 N 31 434 NW 7 2493 P 07/04-07 25 0 0 50 67 W 6 6 4 1 N 31 3416 NNW 10 53316 F 07/04-08 25 0 0 58 51 SW 7 7 4 1 N 31 6397 N 15 104139 V 07/04-09 44 1 0 67 37 SE 7 7 4 1 N 31 9379 N 20 154963 E 07/04-10 44 1 0 76 27 E 8 13 3 1 N 30 9813 N 17 148191 V 07/04-11 44 1 0 79 24 NNE 9 14 3 1 N 28 10246 N 16 141420 V 07/04-12 58 4 1 80 22 NNE 9 15 3 1 N 25 10680 N 15 134648 V 07/04-13 58 4 1 82 21 NNE 9 15 4 1 N 23 10874 N 13 123823 V 07/04-14 58 15 3 81 22 NNE 8 14 4 1 N 20 11068 N 12 112998 V 07/04-15 67 15 3 82 21 NNE 8 13 4 3 N 17 11262 N 10 102173 V 07/04-16 67 15 3 82 20 NE 8 13 4 3 N 16 10036 N 9 81048 G 07/04-17 67 15 3 81 20 NE 8 8 3 3 NNW 14 8809 N 7 59923 F 07/04-18 71 16 3 75 24 NE 7 7 3 3 NW 13 7583 N 6 38799 P 07/04-19 71 16 3 73 26 ENE 5 5 3 3 NW 12 5224 NNE 5 26178 P 07/04-20 71 16 3 70 29 ESE 2 2 3 3 WNW 12 2866 ENE 3 13557 P 07/04-21 64 9 2 67 33 CALM 1 3 1 W 12 507 ENE 2 937 P 07/04-22 64 9 2 65 36 CALM 1 3 1 W 13 1080 E 2 2518 P 07/04-23 64 9 2 64 39 CALM 1 3 1 WNW 14 1653 E 2 4099 P 07/05-00 41 3 1 62 43 SW 2 2 3 1 WNW 15 2226 ESE 3 5681 P 07/05-01 41 3 1 61 45 SW 3 3 3 1 WNW 16 1659 SE 3 4350 P 07/05-02 41 3 1 60 47 SW 3 3 3 1 WNW 17 1092 S 3 3020 P 07/05-03 35 3 1 58 51 SW 5 5 3 1 WNW 20 526 S 3 1689 P 07/05-04 35 3 1 55 58 SW 5 5 3 1 WNW 17 484 SSW 5 1725 P 07/05-05 35 3 1 54 61 SW 5 5 3 1 NW 16 443 SSW 5 1760 P 07/05-06 46 3 1 55 59 SW 5 5 3 1 NW 15 401 SW 5 1795 P 07/05-07 46 3 1 61 48 SW 5 5 3 1 NW 16 3019 WSW 6 15925 P 07/05-08 46 3 1 69 36 SW 5 5 3 1 WNW 16 5637 W 6 30054 P 07/05-09 49 3 1 76 28 SW 5 5 3 1 WNW 17 8256 WNW 6 44183 F 07/05-10 49 3 1 81 24 S 3 3 3 1 WNW 16 9273 WNW 6 42099 F 07/05-11 49 3 1 84 21 ESE 3 3 3 1 WNW 15 10290 W 5 40014 F 07/05-12 71 20 4 86 20 E 2 2 3 3 WNW 15 11307 W 3 37929 P 07/05-13 71 20 4 86 20 CALM 1 3 3 W 15 11053 W 5 40227 F 07/05-14 71 20 4 85 22 CALM 1 3 3 W 15 10800 WSW 5 42525 F 07/05-15 73 20 4 85 23 CALM 1 3 3 W 15 10547 WSW 5 44823 F 07/05-16 73 20 4 84 24 CALM 1 3 3 W 14 10307 WSW 5 38172 P 07/05-17 73 20 4 82 27 NNW 2 2 3 3 W 13 10067 W 3 31521 P 07/05-18 65 22 4 80 29 WNW 2 2 3 3 W 12 9827 W 3 24870 P 07/05-19 65 22 4 76 34 WNW 2 2 3 3 W 10 8772 W 2 18692 P 07/05-20 65 22 4 72 39 CALM 1 3 3 WNW 10 7718 CALM 12513 P 07/05-21 65 21 4 69 44 CALM 1 3 3 WNW 9 6663 CALM 6335 P 07/05-22 65 21 4 66 49 WNW 2 2 3 3 NW 10 4620 WNW 2 5022 P 07/05-23 65 21 4 64 53 W 3 3 3 3 NW 12 2576 W 3 3709 P 07/06-00 46 5 1 63 56 WSW 5 5 3 1 NW 14 533 W 5 2396 P 07/06-01 46 5 1 61 60 WSW 7 7 3 1 NW 14 434 W 6 2110 P 07/06-02 46 5 1 60 62 WSW 8 13 3 1 NW 15 336 W 7 1824 P 07/06-03 48 5 1 58 67 WSW 9 15 3 1 NW 15 237 W 7 1538 P 07/06-04 48 5 1 55 74 WSW 8 14 3 1 NW 15 224 W 7 1367 P 07/06-05 48 5 1 54 76 W 7 7 3 1 NW 14 210 W 7 1196 P 07/06-06 48 6 1 55 72 W 6 6 3 1 NW 13 197 WNW 6 1025 P 07/06-07 48 6 1 60 58 W 6 6 3 1 WNW 13 1172 WNW 6 5174 P 07/06-08 48 6 1 67 44 W 5 5 3 1 WNW 12 2147 WNW 6 9323 P 07/06-09 48 6 1 74 34 WNW 5 5 3 1 WNW 12 3122 WNW 5 13472 P 07/06-10 48 6 1 79 28 NW 3 3 3 1 WNW 13 5287 WNW 6 25114 P 07/06-11 48 6 1 82 25 N 3 3 3 1 WNW 15 7453 W 6 36757 P 07/06-12 66 27 7 84 24 NNE 2 2 3 4 WNW 17 9618 W 6 48399 F 07/06-13 66 27 7 84 24 NE 2 2 3 4 WNW 16 9683 W 7 58112 F 07/06-14 66 27 7 84 25 CALM 1 3 4 W 16 9748 W 8 67826 G 07/06-15 66 27 7 83 27 CALM 1 3 4 W 15 9813 WSW 9 77540 G 07/06-16 66 27 7 81 30 CALM 1 3 4 W 16 9042 W 9 70366 G 07/06-17 66 27 7 80 32 CALM 1 3 4 W 16 8272 W 9 63192 G 07/06-18 69 25 5 77 36 CALM 1 3 4 W 16 7501 W 8 56019 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130703.WILLO.01/BOU