FNUS75 KRIW 040040
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSE CREEK FIRE...BLM CAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
640 PM MDT WED JUL 3 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1801 MDT ON JULY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY...ALONG A LINE FROM UCROSS TO LINCH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY KEEP
THIS ACTIVITY GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN EFFECT OF
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FIRE THIS EVENING. THE FOURTH WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN RANGE...AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-62.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WINDS THROUGH 2000L WILL BE PRIMARILY CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
                    AND ERRATIC...PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
                    AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE...BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH BETWEEN 2200L
                    AND MIDNIGHT. N-NE OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH FROM
                    DISTANT STORMS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND EAST WILL
                    BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.

LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-26 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

LAL.................3 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...ROB NEIBAUER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130703.HORSE.01/RIW