FNUS75 KRIW 041640
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSE CREEK FIRE...BLM CAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1040 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1005 MDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SOME STORMS QUITE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
                    THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-84.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200-6900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BECOMING GOOD BY 1300L (38000-70600 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-63.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING WEST 9 TO
                    13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200-3200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (37700-59100 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-34 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING VARIABLE.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 5.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.60 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200-7200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 22 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 9 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT
                    5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (31200-48000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...ROB NEIBAUER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130704.HORSE.01/RIW