FNUS75 KABQ 051835
FWSABQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARAGON...SANTA FE NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1235 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH A CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MORE HIT AND MISS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THOSE THAT DO MOVE OVER THE BURN AREA WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE WEST. CLOUDS AND SPOT SHOWERS TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RH RECOVERIES. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH
A SIMILAR STEERING FLOW TO TODAY. MODEST WARMING AND DRYING FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INITIALLY SOME MID AND
                       HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS AS
                       THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                       AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......30 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 86-90.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 24-29 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING WEST 7 TO 10 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON.
                       GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                       THUNDERSTORMS.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......WEST 12 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......VERY GOOD/121515 KNOT-FT AT 1700 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...GOOD/61704 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING VERY GOOD/121515 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                       SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......20 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48-52.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MAX 70-75 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING
                       BECOMING TERRAIN DOMINATED LESS THAN 8 MPH.
                       GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                       THUNDERSTORMS.
   VENTILATION TREND...VERY GOOD/120000 KNOT-FT BY EARLY-EVENING
                       BECOMING POOR/2500 KNOT-FT BY LATE-EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                       SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......20 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 88-92.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 22-27 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                       NORTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                       AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                       THUNDERSTORMS.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......VERY GOOD/110000 KNOT-FT AT 1200 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...GOOD/77017 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING FAIR/56790 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FORECASTS FOR WINDS ARE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND MUST BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDING TO FUEL TYPE AND SHELTERING TO GET EYE LEVEL WIND SPEED.

FORECASTER...05

$$

REQUESTED BY...IC STEWART
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130705.ARAGO.01/ABQ