FNUS75 KGJT 060001
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST FORK...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
601 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1654 MDT ON JULY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS SLOWLY INFILTRATED THE AIR MASS AS THE
DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. WHILE THE BEST
MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE HAVE ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASED. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. WETTING RAINS WILL BE PROBABLE WITH STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. ALSO STORMS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH.

.THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING. IF ANY STORMS PASS OVER OR NEAR THE BURN SITE...GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND RAIN UP TO .25 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE BY
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY PASS OVER THE BURN SITE
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

.SATURDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH. INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 2O MPH AFTER 1400. THUNDERSTORM
                    OUTFLOW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
                    MAY DOMINATE SURFACE AND 20-FOOT WINDS LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...BECOMING VERY GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    13500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. HOWEVER
                    VARIABLE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS 10-15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH MAY CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
                    AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. VARIABLE
                    WINDS NEAR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GENERALLY POOR. BETTER MIXING NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6...EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHEN OUTFLOWS MAY DOMINATE.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE MORNING
                    THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN LIGHT AND
                    VARIABLE. BECOMING WEST 5-10 MPH AFTER 1300...
                    WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 2O MPH. THUNDERSTORM
                    OUTFLOW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH
                    MAY DOMINATE SURFACE AND 20-FOOT WINDS LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    13500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...TODD OPPERMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130705.EASTF.01/GJT