FNUS74 KLZK 051744 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR VANDERSLICE FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1218 CDT ON JULY 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST GIVEN SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT THEY WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND GUSTS. HUMIDITY READINGS AT HOT SPRINGS AND MT IDA AT NOON WERE 39 AND 31 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY. WITH PROXIMITY OF BURN SITE TO LAKE OUACHITA...AND CONTINUING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT RH VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD HOLD AROUND 35 PERCENT. GOOD RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERSION STRENGTH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO DAY BREAK SATURDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOMORROW...EXCEPT THAT WINDS WILL BE A TAD STRONGER. LIGHT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER DAYBREAK WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OVERTURN AND YOU WILL SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND WINDS PICKING UP BY 11 AM OR SO. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER AS WELL WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THOUGH RH VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO...SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE LISTED IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL EAST. SOME SHOWERS IN EASTERN ARKANSAS COULD PUT OUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY ENHANCE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THAT IS HARD TO PREDICT AT THE MOMENT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........86 AT REQUEST...MAX 91. RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS........EAST 3 TO 6 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 7400 FT MSL. MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 6602 FT AGL. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 1 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............86 87 88 90 90 89 RH..............38 37 36 35 35 37 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.2 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE S S SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 2 2 2 EYE LVL WND GST.1 2 2 2 2 2 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 6 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 66. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS. LVORI...............1. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV.....SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TEMP............87 86 82 78 76 74 73 72 71 70 69 69 RH..............38 41 46 52 57 61 64 67 70 73 75 77 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 4 4 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 EYE LVL WND GST.2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 TRANSP WIND DIR.E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 6 6 7 9 10 10 9 9 9 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 92. RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........EAST 7 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 6300 FT MSL. MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 5472 FT AGL. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 69 73 77 81 85 87 89 90 91 91 90 RH..............79 78 69 60 53 48 45 42 41 40 40 41 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SE SE E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...C DALTON REQUESTED BY...USFS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130705.VANDE.01/LZK