FNUS75 KGJT 070323
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR UTE MOUNTAIN FIREWORKS...UMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
923 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 2047 MDT ON JULY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT PASS OVER OR NEAR THE EVENT
SITE COULD PRODUCE STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL DRIFT INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-67%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
                    WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY DOMINATE FOR
                    PERIODS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT STORMS
                    MAY STILL PRODUCE VARIABLE WINDS...HOWEVER THESE
                    ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG...OR AS
                    PREVALENT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR...BECOMING POOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BETTER
                    MIXING NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4...2 LATE TONIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS UNTIL
                    MIDNIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%) IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MID
                    AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER
                    1800 MDT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN LIGHT AND
                    VARIABLE. BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH AFTER
                    NOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY 1700 WINDS MAY BE
                    DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS 10-15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. BETTER SMOKE DISPERSAL NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...2 UNTIL 1800...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 14100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH...MAY BE DOMINATED BY
                    THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS AFTER 1700.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...JOE MORRIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT
.TAG 20130706.UTEMO.01/GJT