FNUS75 KGJT 090557
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CAT...CO-SUA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1157 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2331 MDT ON JULY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE DRYING TREND BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ON TUESDAY
FOR ANOTHER DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BURN SITE...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER SAN JUAN PEAKS. DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND RAIN...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES. THE
DRYING/WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN...EXCEPT GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
THAT MAY DOMINATE AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP EACH DAY.

.TUESDAY (BEFORE SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE (0-5 MPH). BECOMING UPSLOPE/
                    UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH AFTER 1300. AT TIMES AFTER
                    1500...VARIABLE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS AT
                    10-15 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS MAY DOMINATE
                    SURFACE AND 20-FOOT WINDS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1030...THEN BECOMING GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...INCREASING TO 12800
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........46-51%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 1000 FT AGL BY 2230.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
                    POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE (0-5 MPH). BECOMING UPSLOPE/
                    UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1030...THEN BECOMING GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    11000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 7 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...RICH GUSTAFSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130708.CAT__.01/GJT