FNUS75 KGJT 102006
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MILK CREEK FIRE...FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
206 PM MDT WED JUL 10 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1323 MDT ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR CONTINUES REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID TEENS
AS HIGHS MOVE INTO THE MID 80S. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE PLATEAUS TO THE SOUTH AND OUTFLOW WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING IN FORCE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD DROP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS STILL MOVING NEAR THE
20 PERCENT MARK IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASES
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN WETTING RAINFALL. THIS TREND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......UPVALLEY WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......15000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......UPVALLEY WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH THROUGH 1800
                    THEN SHIFTING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    AT 4 TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR THROUGH 1900 THEN POOR AFTER 2400.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL AFTER
                    2400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST WINDS 15 MPH THROUGH 1900 THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 8 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    (70-80%) AFTER 1300 WITH A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY AT 4 TO 8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER
                    1300. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 THROUGH 1300 THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13000 FT AGL AFTER
                    1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130710.MILKC.01/GJT